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[Kristin Meredith]

I see that Pres Trump is imposing tariffs on the Chinese and, in retaliation, the Chinese are going to impose tariffs on pork and fruit.  From a newspaper article:

"The National Pork Producers Council said in late March that its members exported $1.1 billion in pork to China last year, making it the third-largest market.

In addition to pork, the new tariffs from the Chinese government will include U.S. exports of apples, oranges, almonds, pineapples, grapes, watermelons, cranberries, strawberries, raspberries, cherries, and a host of other items."

I don't want to hurt farmers, but I would love to see cheaper bacon, it sure had gotten expensive around here -- about $7 a pound for decent stuff.  And oranges are a dollar a piece.  And I only buy about 4 lbs of cherries a year because they are so pricey and even less of raspberries for the same reason.  I would love to know what the Chinese are paying for these products. They don't make what Americans make on average, so it seems hard to believe they are paying the same prices and consuming a lot.

[elenis]

The other interesting thing I saw was the largest pork exporter from the US, Smithfield, is owned by a Chinese company so they sort of shoot themselves in the foot if that is what they are going to do.

[Greg1]

I have read that cash hog prices are suppose to go up over the course of the year.  If that happens you certainly won't see cheaper meat prices. 

[Ross77]

The other interesting thing I saw was the largest pork exporter from the US, Smithfield, is owned by a Chinese company so they sort of shoot themselves in the foot if that is what they are going to do.

That’s right. We keep the hog manure and send the pork and profits to China. What’s even more interesting is that it’s more expensive to raise hogs in China due to regulations. So China bought Smithfield. Maybe the tariffs will change that dynamic. We will soon find out.

[triplebq]

This is the US correct? Nothing is going to get cheaper.

[Bar-B-Lew]

If less will be shipped to China, there should be excess supply in the USA which most likely means a reduction in prices to sell off that excess supply.

[Bar-B-Lew]

We can hope but I'm not counting on it.  Will our tariff on steel raise the price of grills made in China?

Good question.  I am not sure if the tariff is only on raw materials coming in or on finished products that contain those materials too.

[Conumdrum]

It's not USA Florida orange season.  And they have been hit really hard by the hurricane and the greening disease.  Florida oranges are in dire straits and many, many are now coming in from Brazil and other places.  When we get to Florida orange season the price will drop for sure.

Might be the same for cherries, it's not the cherry season in the USA I think. 

Pork?  I hope it drops but whatever we can't sell to China will be picked up by other countries.  Even though the median wage in China is so low much of the packaged pork is sold in the places (big population centers) where the median wage has been climbing like crazy.  AND, if you send 20,000 containers of pork and their markup is much lower even the Chinese middle class can afford it. 

It's such an international market now and so many countries have different ways of marketing.  I wonder if China has "Pork, it's what's for dinner" commercials payed by the pork council conglomerate with millions going to the lobbyists in Washington.  And payments to the pork producing area Congressmen re-election campaigns to reduce the laws of pork farm poop pond regulation?

In China it's just direct to the governor's house/boat/cash payment.  That's gotta be cheaper than what we do.. 

Anyhoo, gotta mow the yard.

[triplebq]

If less will be shipped to China, there should be excess supply in the USA which most likely means a reduction in prices to sell off that excess supply.

So if we have less demand that is going to mean less production. Sorry but I don't believe hog producers will continue to produce the same number of hogs.

[Bar-B-Lew]

If less will be shipped to China, there should be excess supply in the USA which most likely means a reduction in prices to sell off that excess supply.

So if we have less demand that is going to mean less production. Sorry but I don't believe hog producers will continue to produce the same number of hogs.

How long does it take to grow a hog until it gets butchered?  How ever long that period is should be the length of time before the producers can slow down supply.

[Mudflap]

This is the US correct? Nothing is going to get cheaper.

+1
We add they add

If less will be shipped to China, there should be excess supply in the USA which most likely means a reduction in prices to sell off that excess supply.

So if we have less demand that is going to mean less production. Sorry but I don't believe hog producers will continue to produce the same number of hogs.

I see this all the time... To much supply slow down and make less. Plants still run at a profit but just slower. Still over supply shut down a plant and speed others back up.

Mudflap

[Bobitis]

If less will be shipped to China, there should be excess supply in the USA which most likely means a reduction in prices to sell off that excess supply.

So if we have less demand that is going to mean less production. Sorry but I don't believe hog producers will continue to produce the same number of hogs.

^Exactly^

 

Many years ago I was buying steel from all over the world. When US Steel and the other US manufacturers were running at capacity, they outpaced the US demand. In turn, they sold the excess offshore for pennies on the dollar that it got here at home. These mills were very old and the owners/shareholders never invested in new technology or upgrades. The rest of the world quickly caught up us, and could supply an equally good product at a fraction of the cost. When the domestic manufacturers cried foul, the government slapped duties (tariffs) on the offending countries claiming 'dumping'. The result in every instance was the raising of prices for all manufacturers regardless of country. I've seen it time and time again.

The law of supply and demand is a fickle one. When production outgrows demand, the savvy business owner will reduce production, and thereby keep the prices up. If said owner sees his resources dwindling, production will be increased accordingly.

Sadly, this does not apply to stuff that grows on trees. The growers will be hit the hardest. They can't regulate fruit production. They can sell for cheap and try to stay in business, or let the fruit rot. Neither is a good thing.

I believe that what the President did was short sighted. If I can see it, what are his cabinet members saying/thinking? I'm not aware of any negotiations that took place in this matter; just a knee jerk reaction without any forethought. What he should have done (imho) is limit the supply of scrap to China. That would force the Chinese to make the 1st move. Then he could react accordingly. NOBODY likes a bully.

I don't think many folks really understand how many companies in the US are owned by foreign entities. We have steel mills (many) that are owned bu the Russians, Koreans, etc. Why? Because they do it better than we do. They understand the concept of 'keeping up' with the times. They employ many Americans. They pay good wages and provide excellent benefits. But at the end of the day, the profits go to the country of ownership.

So what good will come of this? None I fear.

Sorry for rambling...

[Bar-B-Lew]

What makes a hog butcher different than someone growing fruit?  Are they going to continue to feed the pigs and let them age rather than send to slaughter?  Sure they will reduce the amount they are going to raise at some point, but even if they made a decision to minimize the quantity they raise starting today they still have more in the pipeline than could be sold at current market price if demand from China will decrease.

[mowin]

If less will be shipped to China, there should be excess supply in the USA which most likely means a reduction in prices to sell off that excess supply.

So if we have less demand that is going to mean less production. Sorry but I don't believe hog producers will continue to produce the same number of hogs.

How long does it take to grow a hog until it gets butchered?  How ever long that period is should be the length of time before the producers can slow down supply.

We would pick up our 10 week old piglets in April, and would butcher them in mid October ish as long as it was cool outside. Average weight was 225 live.

[LowSlowJoe]

I've heard that 2/3rds of US Soybean production is sold to China. Heard they were considering tariffs on soybeans too...


I somehow doubt that any other country could easily step in and produce that many soybeans...   I also doubt that China would be willing to impose these tariffs for long, if it meant they were going to have to pay a lot higher prices for soybeans, pork, etc...

 It's all a dance... I'm not really a Trump supporter, but I have no problem at all with his trying to get tough on trade imbalance with China.

 

  As for pork prices themselves... they are already pretty low.   Ok, so producers could reduce the amount of pork they produce... and then what happens to their profits?  I realize that no one in their right mind would take a loss for long on raising pigs, or anything else.  But, like OPEC and other folk around the world, someone's going to want to produce the product that they are geared up to make... In all honestly , pork prices are already pretty good for the US consumer, hard to imagine how they would go down much from where they are now.

Meanwhile, I find all the fuss about the whole 'trade war' to be quite humorous to watch/listen to.  I think at the end of the day/week/month/year, people will figure out how to deal with whatever happens, right now every industry out there that things it might effect them are shouting at the top of their lungs how bad it's going to be for them... and I think they are usually exaggerating what they expect to see, and then shouting it out.