sschorr - I am sorry for your loss. Your family will be on my prayer list. The sad thing about this is that in many cases people are dying alone and families don't have a chance to mourn together. It is hard no matter what the circumstances, but this is beyond what we could have ever imagined.
My neighbor is expected to come home today. He had a very rough go of it, but is recovering. This was posted by a doctor at the hospital he was being treated in. I thought it was very insightful. Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy.
Dr Nick Sward a primary care physician at Bronson Hospital: it is not to cause fear just put this in perspective to stay home if you don’t have to work; wash your hands and social distance.
Pandemic Ponderings from Primary Care 3/28/2020
(sorry for length)
Disclaimer: The intent of these posts are NOT to cause panic, but to provide some basic education and help us look at these issues in a different way. Everyone learns differently so hopefully at least one of these posts will resonate with folks.
I've seen quite a few people post: "The recovery rate from this is almost 99%, so stop spreading panic and focus on the positive!" The fact that almost 99% will fully recover is an absolutely TRUE statement. That's great, right?? Slow down a second and just think about that. Sometimes it's hard to work the numbers in your head that our country has 330,000,000 people so if even half of us get infected (lowball estimate), then 1,650,000 of us will die from this. Those kinds of numbers seem hard for people to wrap their heads around so I'm going to focus on where I live, Kalamazoo, Michigan.
Kalamazoo County Population: 263,000
SW Michigan population (7 counties): 874,000
Bronson Methodist Hospital Beds: 434
Borgess Ascension Hospital Beds: 371
Bronson adult ICU beds: approx. 50 (plus 22 O.R beds)
Borgess adult ICU beds: approx. 30
On any given day, both hospitals run at approximately 85-93% capacity (according to American Hospital Directory), so on average, there are 725 patients occupying 805 available beds. This leaves us 80 beds available for anything else that might happen. (If you account for every other hospital in SW Michigan, it adds 77 beds, accounting for utilization)
Current estimates are that between 40-70% of us will become infected with COVID 19 and about 5% of those will need hospitalization (2% requiring ICU care and 1% will need a ventilator). Let's run the numbers!
Population 40% infected 70% infected
263,000 (Kzoo) 105,000 184,000
- 5% hosp 5250 9200
- ICU needs 2100 3680
- Deaths 1050 1840
874,000 (SW Mi) 338,000 593,000
- 5% hosp 16900 26950
- ICU needs 6760 11860
- Deaths 3,380 5,930
So, if you crunch those numbers......
HAVE vs NEED
BEDS: 157 17000-27000
ICU BEDS: 80 6750-12000
Sooooooooooooo even though we already decided that 99% of people will recover from this, you have to remember that 5% will need to be hospitalized. If they CANNOT be hospitalized because WE DON'T HAVE THE ROOM, how many of those people will die? Unknown. But I don't want to find out. That 5% improve because we are able to give them all the care they need. For now. What happens when we cannot? What happens when over half of the nurses, doctors, NP's, PA's, respiratory therapists, Pharmacists and other healthcare people get sick and can't come to work and further drop our ability to care? Even if our hospitals were EMPTY to start, we would fall short of the demand by 50-80% (and we already know both hospitals are 90% full almost all the time). Both hospitals are working 24/7 right now to prepare in any way we can by cancelling elective surgeries and opening up more beds and operating suites which could be used as ICU beds if necessary. But it's only going to make a dent in what is needed and we need YOU to help us.
The picture here is surely one of "Holy****!". But here's where YOU get to make a difference: Research done in China and other countries that have successfully slowed the spread and flattened their curves show consistently that SOCIAL DISTANCING and EFFECTIVE HAND WASHING can lower cases, hospitalizations and deaths dramatically. We CAN make a difference. I know it sucks being home all the time. But if we're going to make a difference, we must do it NOW.
