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[jdmessner]

It is amazing how our mind works. When the virus was in China I’m thinking that’s too bad, I feel sorry for them, I’ll keep them in my prayers. I hope they are able to get a vaccine and will continue to pray it doesn’t spread. When it gets to Italy it seems a bit closer. Both my kids spent some time in Milan a couple of years ago and it looked weird to see empty streets in places where they once stood in the midst of bustling traffic and crowds. Still, this was happening in other countries, but not ours.

When it first reached the United States it seemed like drastic overkill when the first precautions started to kick in. What do you mean no spring training baseball or NCAA Basketball? What am I supposed to do? Why can’t they just play the games without crowds? If we just keep our distance we should be OK.

When basketball players started sharing the virus and then celebrities like Tom Hanks and now Prince Charles caught it; it showed that the virus could hit anyone anywhere (as Madonna so eloquently felt the need to state in her bathtub). It became a bit more concerning and we prayed a bit harder. It eventually made its way into our state, but it was mostly the other side of the state. Then it worked its way into surrounding counties, but still not ours.

I guess that’s the mentality I had. It is bad but still not ours. Not our country, not our state, not our county, not our community. Even though it was “not ours” we knew it was bad and treated it seriously. The mind set was to take preventative precautions and that will keep it away. These precautions are an important opportinity to respond in a meaningful way.

Now it just got real. I just got confirmation that a physically fit man in his early 40s has tested positive for the corona virus. He is in the hospital and extremely ill.  He lives a few houses down from me. I have not had any interaction with him directly, but I have with some of his family members. I ask for your prayers as we try to get through this health crisis. For me it is no longer “not ours”.

As a pastor, over the last two weeks I have seen dramatic changes happen in the way we minister. As a result I have started posting some videos on YouTube, offering my two cents on how we can adapt and cope in the midst of this healthcare crisis. I am certainly not that up on cinematic techniques, so please realize these this is a work in progress. I do not know how people do FB live, that is working without a net! I will continue to post videos online at least once a week. If you search Wakelee UMC on facebook you will find them.

Grace and peace be with you as we work through these troubled times.

John


March 22 Worship Service
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_poktNMODQ

March 25 Devotion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_poktNMODQ


This one will put a smile on the face of anyone who has been a parent or teacher!
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/moms-hilarious-prayer-for-heavenly-help-in-homeschooling-amid-covid-19-is-every-parent-right-now

[Hank D Thoreau]

We have not had a major impacting event like this in this country probably since WWII. 911 did not change our lives to this magnitude. Neither did the cold war or the Russian missile crisis. Most folks have never experienced anything that required this level of mobilization and change and they are struggling with it. Add to that the constant attacks on the media and science over the past few years and trust is at an all time low. Even authoritative sources are not trusted if the information is in conflict with our personal world views. We should not have to have a march for science, but unfortunately, that is where we are as a society. We have good people in the medical and scientific communities working on this. We have heroes in the healthcare community working on the front lines to manage the situation. We need to treat these folks, who are putting themselves and their families at risk, with the same respect we give military, law enforcement, and fire fighters. I think if people could take a virtual tour of a hospital in New York City, or a virology research lab, they would better understand the severity of what is going on and would not have to wait until someone they know or love is impacted to act. There are too many folks that are cynical about the measures being taken and do not want to comply.

[dk117]

I'm in the cynical category.  Things got real for me almost two weeks ago when schools got canceled.   My wife is a teacher and I have 13 and 16 year old daughters.   They've been going stir crazy.   Next week was supposed to be spring break.  Hawaii is basically closed so our trip was canceled. 

Boo hoo, first world problems, I get it.   So why am I cynical?   Go to Home Depot or any grocery store.   People are not social distancing.  Every grocery store visit would then require a 14 day quarantine period.  A single trip to the grocery store makes this entire lockdown moot.

I'm not suggesting our efforts are entirely futile, far from it, I don't want to be the guy spreading COVID-19, but when I do venture out, I see too many people not taking care.   And at the end of all this, at best we're flattening the curve and waiting for a vaccine.  We're not eliminating this virus from our lives. 

[MN-Smoker]

I believe I had the virus last week.
My daughter's school was exposed and she was ill a couple weeks ago.
Then I got something, then my wife.

I was not able to be tested, but my wife recently was, although she's likely through it from all practical purposes.

It was like a bad flu and fortunately it ended around day 5. I worked from home for 3 of my 4 sick days.
Do your best to follow the social distancing guidelines and minimize the spread.
This isn't going away for a few months.

[dk117]

and John, we tried vimeo mass.  Was kind of fun, we'll be tuning in again this Sunday. 

https://vimeo.com/archdioceseofseattle

[pmillen]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=nDIJz6zzHNU&feature=emb_logo

[Hank D Thoreau]

I was sick in February running over 102 for a couple of days and triggering asthma. There is more going around than just COVID-19.

There are a lot of folks that are not social distancing. This is not a reason to be cynical of the policy. It is a reason why we need to reinforce the imperative with our friends and neighbors.

We can't just throw up our hands and give up because some folks don't understand. Wait until someone they know gets it and they have to deal with their carelessness.

Look at the mega churches that won't stop services. Look at the beaches, and spring break partying. This says more about us than the folks that are trying to help us through this.

Fortunately, folks are doing a good job with social distancing at the places I shop for food, which is all I am shopping for now.

We have to also consider what we are doing to health care providers by not acting responsibly. They are going to help no matter what, even when they have their own families to protect.

If you can't think of yourself, family, or friends, at least think of the people on the front lines who accept the risk and come to work every day to treat the ill, and hope they don't get themselves and their family ill in the process.

[okie smokie]

Did my first grocery shopping online. Great idea for dry, and canned products. I would not order fruit, or fresh veggies--too many people handle them both in production and in the store.  I see people handling the fruit and veggies to select the best--No thanks for now. But packaged goods and milk, butter, cheese, etc easy to order.  Pay online and then drive over and they will load your car or trunk for you.  Then home, sterile wipe down the milk bottles and other moist packages and into fridge when dry.  The rest of the goods are dry boxed or canned. Those I leave in the store bags for 2 days before placing on my own shelves. Better to be over cautious than under IMO. I am immunocompromised and 84 so that is another reason. 

[jdmessner]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=nDIJz6zzHNU&feature=emb_logo

That was awesome! I don't think our group is quite ready to pull anything like that off quite yet! But it is amazing to see how creative some folks can be.

[jdmessner]

and John, we tried vimeo mass.  Was kind of fun, we'll be tuning in again this Sunday. 

https://vimeo.com/archdioceseofseattle

I just got hooked up with ZOOM. That looks like another doable oprion. It has been kind of a crash course on technological advances over the past couple of weeks.

[Bar-B-Lew]

Keep up the good work of keeping peoples spirits high jd

[dk117]

and John, we tried vimeo mass.  Was kind of fun, we'll be tuning in again this Sunday. 

https://vimeo.com/archdioceseofseattle

I just got hooked up with ZOOM. That looks like another doable oprion. It has been kind of a crash course on technological advances over the past couple of weeks.

My teacher wife and student kids are all using Zoom.   Seems to be a great platform and seemingly free for the duration of the pandemic.  Quality stuff and a great way to interact. 

[ICIdaho]

I have had to work from home for the last 2 weeks. My kids have been sent home from school for about 2 weeks. I fall somewhere between cynical and we need to take precautions. Much of the statistics are based on information we don’t have. You hear these high rates of mortality, and then hear 80% are mild and may show very few symptoms and never are tested. That tells me from a logical standpoint the denominator is wrong and drastically changes the percentage the mortality to a bad flu year.  The virus is here. It will not go away with all of these efforts.  A virus has to run its course, meaning a majority have to have immunity so it does not have a place to live. A vaccine is 9 months out or more. The current strategy cannot continue and not have detrimental effects for generations.  The healthy and immune should be still participating and getting the herd immunity. Keep the older and vulnerable isolated. For the vast majority on this board from what I have gathered should remember many similar situations. 2009 H1N1 are stats that rival many. 2018 common flu took almost 80,000 in the US. This is not to diminish any losses from the current issue, but to put perspective back in place. Take care and I wish well to all in any pandemic or bad known flu season.

[Hank D Thoreau]

I am not saying this is what is happening in your case but I am seeing this all over. Folks disparage science and then decide that they are statisticians and try to analyze the data themselves. Suddenly everyone is an expert. As a scientist I can tell you that there are models these guys are running that can do a pretty good job of estimating what will happen based on various responses. We have to stop comparing to flu statistics, heart disease, car accidents, etc. There are folks that know what they are doing, like Dr Fauci. I listen to him if I want authoritative information. I don't try to do the analysis myself because I do not have the expertise, even though I helped develop mathematical models working with the 2013 Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry, as part of the development of the field of computational chemistry. If you cannot do good science then find an authoritative and trusted source to get your information from. As long as he is allowed to speak freely my trusted source is Dr Fauci. He is not downplaying the risk. He said that if it seems like we are over reacting, we are doing it right. He understands the potential consequences of inaction. And if you really want to understand the potential check out the Spanish Flu. The death toll was 17 to 50 million. We know more about all aspects of virology and epidemiology than we did back then. We have to use that expertise to make the impact of this virus as small as possible, and then celebrate the fact that we did not allow it to kill millions. The danger is that when we do a good job, it minimizes our impression of the risk the next time a virus comes around. We become cynical and don't do the right thing. Cynicism will get people killed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

[Kristin Meredith]

Many of the experts also said Y2K was going to lead to a complete melt down of our computer systems, global nuclear war could happen, failure of banking. etc.  There are always people on each end of any spectrum and then there are the vast majority of us who just have to live life daily.

Maybe it was because I was a defense litigator for 30 years, but I learned pretty quickly I could find any very well qualified expert to back up my position. And they weren't necessarily wrong or right -- they just had their opinion based on their interpretation of the data. And this included doctors, accountants, mathematicians, engineers, etc.  Science and scientists are not infaliible, they are constantly having to revise opinions as they learn more and things change. I include Dr. Fauci in that category.  He is not infallible or the only person in the world who knows something about viruses -- even though the media would like you to believe that. What I have also learned from human nature is that, given all the attention and adoration he is receiving, Dr. Fauci may believe it also and that starts to make him biased.

And yeah, I can do some basic statistics. Given the number of cases reported and the death rates reported in the US, our mortality rate in the US is currently 1.43%.  Of note is Germany with a .5% mortality. No one knows for sure, but experts are theorizing the much lower mortality in Germany because they are testing thousands and thousands more than other nations and therefore picking up all the folks with very mild cases.  We are reserving tests and picking up all the sickest. But we have thousand and thousand out there with mild cases who will never be tested and so never become part of our statistical base. I could go on and on because I track numerous data bases on this every day.  Yes, caution is advised, especially for older folks and folks with more vunerable systems.  But, I see lots of pols running around and telling everyone to stay at home -- I don't see any explaining how we support miliions and millions of unemployed until a vaccine is developed in 12 to 18 months.  The reason is obvious -- we can't.  Some scrificies will have to be endured.