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[Hank D Thoreau]

Y2K is an interesting example that I have been tempted to bring up but wanted to avoid the cynicism around it. I worked for three years preparing for Y2K for a large outsourcing company. I did much of the beginning planning and evaluation. Once it got to executable plans, I turned thousands of changes over to our technical staff to implement and got reports multiple times a day on the progress. I have no way of estimating the number of changes that were implemented to mitigate the impact because our work was built on the foundation of others. Most changes were completely invisible to users and folks at home, so you did not even know what was happening. There were war rooms set up around the world on the night of the change so issues could be identified and mitigated as they happened. The Y2K issue was real. We knew exactly how time and date is calculated and stored on a computer. We knew exactly how date and time was going to appear after Y2K. It was not going to magically fix itself. We knew how it was going to impact operating systems and applications, such as producing your paycheck. It was fixed through years of incredible planning and execution by product vendors and IT professionals. This is what made it a non event. But as a society, we have this aversion to success. When something looks too easy to us, we wonder why we spent so much time and energy worrying about it. Sadly that is what we are facing here. If we follow the recommendations of scientists and epidemiologists and manage to keep this from becoming the Spanish Flu and killing millions, folks will call it an over reaction and blame science for the cost of the cure. "See it was not as bad as you said. This turned out to be another myth like Y2K".

[Hank D Thoreau]

The reason that we are reacting more seriously about this virus than previous ones is because of what science is telling us about the potential. Countries are shutting down their economies because they are getting front line information on the predicted impacts that we do not see. There is modelling going on that most folks could not begin to understand based our best science. Do you really think that Trump would have taken the action he did knowing the impact it would have on the economy, if there was not some devastating and credible predictions that he was trying to avoid? Really, in an election year ! This is not basic statistics. If we plan and execute our mitigation right this may end up looking like an over reaction. I hope that happens. This is not a circus act. We shouldn't have to intentionally fall into the net just to prove that what we are doing is hard. Our goal is to complete our routine without falling off the tight rope.

[Kristin Meredith]

I was obviously too obtuse in my reference to Y2K.  My point was as you said -- we had countless people, working numerous hours coming up with fixes and patches and solutions.  Yet, at the end of the day they could not guarantee that it would work, there were still doubts.  Heck, I had insurance clients who made a lot of money selling Y2K policies to companies and Y2K malpractice policies to companies providing fixers.  No one wanted to say it was the absolute thing to do and there would be no problems.  Plenty of experts who had been part of the fixes still said things could go wrong.  And the media hyped the negative all the time.

But Hank, when does your science say we can all go back to work and it will be safe using the parametrs that science defines as safe (which I have yet to hear anyone articulate)? 

[Hank D Thoreau]

But Hank, when does your science say we can all go back to work and it will be safe using the parametrs that science defines as safe (which I have yet to hear anyone articulate)?

We are not getting that information in a clear way. Dr. Fauci is the person that I trust the most in this case. He continues to send out warnings. You can model this but the outcome is based on certain assumptions, such as social distancing compliance. I imagine some of the potential outcomes are pretty scary and aren't about to be released. There are no certainties in this type of situation. I am sure folks were asking the same question in London during the bombing of WWII. One thing I learned in my years of climbing is that when you get in trouble, you assess the situation, develop a plan, continuously monitoring and manage the risk, and don't get impatient. Sometimes you have to hunker down on top of the mountain rather than trying to push a dangerous night time decent.

[Hank D Thoreau]

I was obviously too obtuse in my reference to Y2K.  My point was as you said -- we had countless people, working numerous hours coming up with fixes and patches and solutions.  Yet, at the end of the day they could not guarantee that it would work, there were still doubts.  Heck, I had insurance clients who made a lot of money selling Y2K policies to companies and Y2K malpractice policies to companies providing fixers.  No one wanted to say it was the absolute thing to do and there would be no problems.  Plenty of experts who had been part of the fixes still said things could go wrong.  And the media hyped the negative all the time.

Even with all of our planning, even the folks working on it could not guarantee we found everything. That is why we built war room processes to quickly identify and mitigate anything we missed. It turns out we did a better job than we expected. We did a lot of testing prior to Y2K. We rolled clocks forward and ran mountains of use cases through the systems to try to minimize the probability of failure, but it never goes to zero. You might have an unexpected weak link in the chain, like folks that do not social distance. That's kind of the point. Assess, reassess, and reassess again. The same thing that I am sure they are doing with the virus. These models predict societal impacts. You can bet that the decision makers are looking at the risk of lost life versus the risk to the economy. At least I hope they are. Performing these types of risk assessments are not new. They used to be done by Homeland Security.

[Kristin Meredith]

Lots of words, but no answer to the simple question.  And no people weren't asking the questions about when it would end in London.  They were getting in planes and tanks and manning guns and taking action, not sitting around in fear.

[Bar-B-Lew]

I think that is what Trump was attempting to provoke by throwing the date of Easter out there to start the country back up.  He wants to give some level of visibility to businesses that people have built up over their lifetime and are watching grumble in front of them day by day.  I think he is forcing the hand of those around him to tell him why it can't be done, and what we can do to accelerate eliminating the spread so we can get back to something closer to what our daily lives were a month or so ago.  He just likes to negotiate in public.  Many don't like that tactic and many do.  I'm 50/50 on it and not a fan of his approach or tactics in a lot of cases.  In this instance, I like the idea because people want answers and he is pressing those around him to provide something that people can point to...sort of a beacon.  This is where we want to get to, this is when we want to get to it, these are the things we need to do to get there.  We may need to adapt along the way, but we are going to do everything we can to get there as planned.  Unfortunately, those around him have not been able to provide those answers to the public yet and some of the media is attacking him for being wreckless.  I don't see it that way (yet).

[Bar-B-Lew]

So for the last week, I have been watching the daily Trump press conferences and then some coverage after the presser.  Monday/Tuesday I watched CNN, Wed I watched MSNBC, and Thur/Fri I watched Fox.  Granted, I have not watched a news channel or program regularly in probably 30+ years.  Wow, what a difference the news is that you get depending on which channel you watch.  I will say that politically I feel somewhere in the middle.  Well, Mon thru Wed the only thing I heard after the press conference was I can't believe he did/said this, he should do this, why isn't this happening.  Very rarely were there any facts about anything related to the pandemic or tactics being done to slow it down or end it.  Thur/Fri I heard I can't believe this channel is saying this about him, look at all of these great things he has done, he is the greatest leader and comparable to General Patton, etc.  I did get to hear some facts though from people on the front lines and how they are handling patients with some meds that seem to be working.  How the government is now mobilizing some resources to certain areas.  What some private industry companies are doing to help fight this pandemic.  Some positive news if you can cut through the rest of the rhetoric.

My parents are in their mid 70s.  The other night I was talking to my Mom.  She started on the Trump said this, did that, didn't do this, should have done that.  And believe me, she is far from political at all.  I started telling her, did you hear about this, did you hear about that.  She said no where did you hear that stuff.

This week I have been blown away by the power of the press and the money behind these TV stations.  It is crazy how some of these propaganda machines only care about ensuring that Trump is not re-elected and have no interest in reporting actual news and facts.  I didn't vote for Trump.  I have issues with some of his beliefs, tactics, etc.  I find it absurd that 100% of all coverage by certain TV stations are about attempting his ouster rather than reporting relevant news.

If there is ever civil unrest again in this country (and I am sure there will be), I blame the national media for creating whatever the controversy is.  I think I would feel better if I only heard our President (whomever it may be at the time) give a nightly news update and have members of his/her staff provide details after the speech.  And then say goodnight, America.

If anyone has a good independent new source that they trust, please let me know.  I think I am tired of watching the major television news stations in this country.  Stay safe out there and take care of each other.

[reubenray]

I hardly watch news at all.  I am a headline ready mostly on the web.  The media itself is the blame for this.  A lot of the reporting are opinions which are like (***holes) everyone has one.  They mainly look for ratings and they are alarmist.  Living in hurricane country most of my life I have seen this over and over again.  I use AP and Reuters plus I briefly check Fox and CNN. 

On a side note my wife's niece was tested and she was negative.

[Kristin Meredith]

I am not sure there is any trusted news source anymore. I try to read and sometimes watch several different sources and then apply my own filters.  For Covid-19, I do as much of my own research, consulting different data bases for information, reading some science news, following up with my own research when they mention drugs or therapies. 

I don't trust the media and I don't trust the politicians on either side.  Unfortunately, neither career attracts the best and the brightest and that is why I am always surprised folks pay as much attention as they do to either group.

[ylr]

The aluminum rolling mill I work at is shutting down for at least two weeks. We are an Essential Industry, but we can't make any money if we're making aluminum that no one's buying because they are also shut down. I won't be hurting for money(thanks for Washington's stimulus), and I'll use the time to move into my new house when it gets finished in about a week. Of course, the mattress store that's supposed to deliver my mattress is closed indefinitely, so I guess I'll have to buy an air mattress in the meantime.....

[MysticRhythms]

Lies, xxxx lies, and statistics.
It is very difficult to believe anything said by either the media or the politicians.
The numbers that are used are all tainted.
If you want the numbers to reflect a high percentage of cases you can make that happen. If you want low numbers you can do that too. It is all in the interpretation.
Even the way questions are asked in polls is a contributor to this.
You cannot take bias out of the equation.   

[hughver]

I guess I'm of the opinion that virtually no one actually lies per se, but interpret things so that they support their political bias/intelligence. Both the left and the right claim that the other side is lying, but truth be told, there is an element truth in most of the "lies" that the other side choses to ignore.

[ICIdaho]

We cannot hunker down long enough to avoid this. It is a virus and it is here. 6 months from now it will still be here. History will be the judge on whether the lives destroyed by the response are more than the lives destroyed by the virus. The suicide rate, drug overdose etc will all go up due to economic crash. Seniors in high school planning to attend college may not be able to now because a college fund has been decimated or being used to live off of. People just retired or planning to retire may now never get to. Already retired may have to try re-enter the work force and fight for jobs while massive unemployment rates exist.

Leaders and not doctors will need to make the decision when to return. Doctors are too narrowly focused and only have concern for the immediate virus, which is noble, but not the only variable in the equation.

[hughver]

Leaders and not doctors will need to make the decision when to return.