Pellet Fan
All Things Considered => General Discussion--Non food Related => Topic started by: jdmessner on March 26, 2020, 01:24:50 PM
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It is amazing how our mind works. When the virus was in China I’m thinking that’s too bad, I feel sorry for them, I’ll keep them in my prayers. I hope they are able to get a vaccine and will continue to pray it doesn’t spread. When it gets to Italy it seems a bit closer. Both my kids spent some time in Milan a couple of years ago and it looked weird to see empty streets in places where they once stood in the midst of bustling traffic and crowds. Still, this was happening in other countries, but not ours.
When it first reached the United States it seemed like drastic overkill when the first precautions started to kick in. What do you mean no spring training baseball or NCAA Basketball? What am I supposed to do? Why can’t they just play the games without crowds? If we just keep our distance we should be OK.
When basketball players started sharing the virus and then celebrities like Tom Hanks and now Prince Charles caught it; it showed that the virus could hit anyone anywhere (as Madonna so eloquently felt the need to state in her bathtub). It became a bit more concerning and we prayed a bit harder. It eventually made its way into our state, but it was mostly the other side of the state. Then it worked its way into surrounding counties, but still not ours.
I guess that’s the mentality I had. It is bad but still not ours. Not our country, not our state, not our county, not our community. Even though it was “not ours†we knew it was bad and treated it seriously. The mind set was to take preventative precautions and that will keep it away. These precautions are an important opportinity to respond in a meaningful way.
Now it just got real. I just got confirmation that a physically fit man in his early 40s has tested positive for the corona virus. He is in the hospital and extremely ill. He lives a few houses down from me. I have not had any interaction with him directly, but I have with some of his family members. I ask for your prayers as we try to get through this health crisis. For me it is no longer “not oursâ€.
As a pastor, over the last two weeks I have seen dramatic changes happen in the way we minister. As a result I have started posting some videos on YouTube, offering my two cents on how we can adapt and cope in the midst of this healthcare crisis. I am certainly not that up on cinematic techniques, so please realize these this is a work in progress. I do not know how people do FB live, that is working without a net! I will continue to post videos online at least once a week. If you search Wakelee UMC on facebook you will find them.
Grace and peace be with you as we work through these troubled times.
John
March 22 Worship Service
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_poktNMODQ
March 25 Devotion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_poktNMODQ
This one will put a smile on the face of anyone who has been a parent or teacher!
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/moms-hilarious-prayer-for-heavenly-help-in-homeschooling-amid-covid-19-is-every-parent-right-now
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We have not had a major impacting event like this in this country probably since WWII. 911 did not change our lives to this magnitude. Neither did the cold war or the Russian missile crisis. Most folks have never experienced anything that required this level of mobilization and change and they are struggling with it. Add to that the constant attacks on the media and science over the past few years and trust is at an all time low. Even authoritative sources are not trusted if the information is in conflict with our personal world views. We should not have to have a march for science, but unfortunately, that is where we are as a society. We have good people in the medical and scientific communities working on this. We have heroes in the healthcare community working on the front lines to manage the situation. We need to treat these folks, who are putting themselves and their families at risk, with the same respect we give military, law enforcement, and fire fighters. I think if people could take a virtual tour of a hospital in New York City, or a virology research lab, they would better understand the severity of what is going on and would not have to wait until someone they know or love is impacted to act. There are too many folks that are cynical about the measures being taken and do not want to comply.
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I'm in the cynical category. Things got real for me almost two weeks ago when schools got canceled. My wife is a teacher and I have 13 and 16 year old daughters. They've been going stir crazy. Next week was supposed to be spring break. Hawaii is basically closed so our trip was canceled.
Boo hoo, first world problems, I get it. So why am I cynical? Go to Home Depot or any grocery store. People are not social distancing. Every grocery store visit would then require a 14 day quarantine period. A single trip to the grocery store makes this entire lockdown moot.
I'm not suggesting our efforts are entirely futile, far from it, I don't want to be the guy spreading COVID-19, but when I do venture out, I see too many people not taking care. And at the end of all this, at best we're flattening the curve and waiting for a vaccine. We're not eliminating this virus from our lives.
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I believe I had the virus last week.
My daughter's school was exposed and she was ill a couple weeks ago.
Then I got something, then my wife.
I was not able to be tested, but my wife recently was, although she's likely through it from all practical purposes.
It was like a bad flu and fortunately it ended around day 5. I worked from home for 3 of my 4 sick days.
Do your best to follow the social distancing guidelines and minimize the spread.
This isn't going away for a few months.
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and John, we tried vimeo mass. Was kind of fun, we'll be tuning in again this Sunday.
https://vimeo.com/archdioceseofseattle (https://vimeo.com/archdioceseofseattle)
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=nDIJz6zzHNU&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=nDIJz6zzHNU&feature=emb_logo)
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I was sick in February running over 102 for a couple of days and triggering asthma. There is more going around than just COVID-19.
There are a lot of folks that are not social distancing. This is not a reason to be cynical of the policy. It is a reason why we need to reinforce the imperative with our friends and neighbors.
We can't just throw up our hands and give up because some folks don't understand. Wait until someone they know gets it and they have to deal with their carelessness.
Look at the mega churches that won't stop services. Look at the beaches, and spring break partying. This says more about us than the folks that are trying to help us through this.
Fortunately, folks are doing a good job with social distancing at the places I shop for food, which is all I am shopping for now.
We have to also consider what we are doing to health care providers by not acting responsibly. They are going to help no matter what, even when they have their own families to protect.
If you can't think of yourself, family, or friends, at least think of the people on the front lines who accept the risk and come to work every day to treat the ill, and hope they don't get themselves and their family ill in the process.
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Did my first grocery shopping online. Great idea for dry, and canned products. I would not order fruit, or fresh veggies--too many people handle them both in production and in the store. I see people handling the fruit and veggies to select the best--No thanks for now. But packaged goods and milk, butter, cheese, etc easy to order. Pay online and then drive over and they will load your car or trunk for you. Then home, sterile wipe down the milk bottles and other moist packages and into fridge when dry. The rest of the goods are dry boxed or canned. Those I leave in the store bags for 2 days before placing on my own shelves. Better to be over cautious than under IMO. I am immunocompromised and 84 so that is another reason.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=nDIJz6zzHNU&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=nDIJz6zzHNU&feature=emb_logo)
That was awesome! I don't think our group is quite ready to pull anything like that off quite yet! But it is amazing to see how creative some folks can be.
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and John, we tried vimeo mass. Was kind of fun, we'll be tuning in again this Sunday.
https://vimeo.com/archdioceseofseattle (https://vimeo.com/archdioceseofseattle)
I just got hooked up with ZOOM. That looks like another doable oprion. It has been kind of a crash course on technological advances over the past couple of weeks.
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Keep up the good work of keeping peoples spirits high jd
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and John, we tried vimeo mass. Was kind of fun, we'll be tuning in again this Sunday.
https://vimeo.com/archdioceseofseattle (https://vimeo.com/archdioceseofseattle)
I just got hooked up with ZOOM. That looks like another doable oprion. It has been kind of a crash course on technological advances over the past couple of weeks.
My teacher wife and student kids are all using Zoom. Seems to be a great platform and seemingly free for the duration of the pandemic. Quality stuff and a great way to interact.
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I have had to work from home for the last 2 weeks. My kids have been sent home from school for about 2 weeks. I fall somewhere between cynical and we need to take precautions. Much of the statistics are based on information we don’t have. You hear these high rates of mortality, and then hear 80% are mild and may show very few symptoms and never are tested. That tells me from a logical standpoint the denominator is wrong and drastically changes the percentage the mortality to a bad flu year. The virus is here. It will not go away with all of these efforts. A virus has to run its course, meaning a majority have to have immunity so it does not have a place to live. A vaccine is 9 months out or more. The current strategy cannot continue and not have detrimental effects for generations. The healthy and immune should be still participating and getting the herd immunity. Keep the older and vulnerable isolated. For the vast majority on this board from what I have gathered should remember many similar situations. 2009 H1N1 are stats that rival many. 2018 common flu took almost 80,000 in the US. This is not to diminish any losses from the current issue, but to put perspective back in place. Take care and I wish well to all in any pandemic or bad known flu season.
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I am not saying this is what is happening in your case but I am seeing this all over. Folks disparage science and then decide that they are statisticians and try to analyze the data themselves. Suddenly everyone is an expert. As a scientist I can tell you that there are models these guys are running that can do a pretty good job of estimating what will happen based on various responses. We have to stop comparing to flu statistics, heart disease, car accidents, etc. There are folks that know what they are doing, like Dr Fauci. I listen to him if I want authoritative information. I don't try to do the analysis myself because I do not have the expertise, even though I helped develop mathematical models working with the 2013 Nobel Prize winner in Chemistry, as part of the development of the field of computational chemistry. If you cannot do good science then find an authoritative and trusted source to get your information from. As long as he is allowed to speak freely my trusted source is Dr Fauci. He is not downplaying the risk. He said that if it seems like we are over reacting, we are doing it right. He understands the potential consequences of inaction. And if you really want to understand the potential check out the Spanish Flu. The death toll was 17 to 50 million. We know more about all aspects of virology and epidemiology than we did back then. We have to use that expertise to make the impact of this virus as small as possible, and then celebrate the fact that we did not allow it to kill millions. The danger is that when we do a good job, it minimizes our impression of the risk the next time a virus comes around. We become cynical and don't do the right thing. Cynicism will get people killed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
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Many of the experts also said Y2K was going to lead to a complete melt down of our computer systems, global nuclear war could happen, failure of banking. etc. There are always people on each end of any spectrum and then there are the vast majority of us who just have to live life daily.
Maybe it was because I was a defense litigator for 30 years, but I learned pretty quickly I could find any very well qualified expert to back up my position. And they weren't necessarily wrong or right -- they just had their opinion based on their interpretation of the data. And this included doctors, accountants, mathematicians, engineers, etc. Science and scientists are not infaliible, they are constantly having to revise opinions as they learn more and things change. I include Dr. Fauci in that category. He is not infallible or the only person in the world who knows something about viruses -- even though the media would like you to believe that. What I have also learned from human nature is that, given all the attention and adoration he is receiving, Dr. Fauci may believe it also and that starts to make him biased.
And yeah, I can do some basic statistics. Given the number of cases reported and the death rates reported in the US, our mortality rate in the US is currently 1.43%. Of note is Germany with a .5% mortality. No one knows for sure, but experts are theorizing the much lower mortality in Germany because they are testing thousands and thousands more than other nations and therefore picking up all the folks with very mild cases. We are reserving tests and picking up all the sickest. But we have thousand and thousand out there with mild cases who will never be tested and so never become part of our statistical base. I could go on and on because I track numerous data bases on this every day. Yes, caution is advised, especially for older folks and folks with more vunerable systems. But, I see lots of pols running around and telling everyone to stay at home -- I don't see any explaining how we support miliions and millions of unemployed until a vaccine is developed in 12 to 18 months. The reason is obvious -- we can't. Some scrificies will have to be endured.
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Y2K is an interesting example that I have been tempted to bring up but wanted to avoid the cynicism around it. I worked for three years preparing for Y2K for a large outsourcing company. I did much of the beginning planning and evaluation. Once it got to executable plans, I turned thousands of changes over to our technical staff to implement and got reports multiple times a day on the progress. I have no way of estimating the number of changes that were implemented to mitigate the impact because our work was built on the foundation of others. Most changes were completely invisible to users and folks at home, so you did not even know what was happening. There were war rooms set up around the world on the night of the change so issues could be identified and mitigated as they happened. The Y2K issue was real. We knew exactly how time and date is calculated and stored on a computer. We knew exactly how date and time was going to appear after Y2K. It was not going to magically fix itself. We knew how it was going to impact operating systems and applications, such as producing your paycheck. It was fixed through years of incredible planning and execution by product vendors and IT professionals. This is what made it a non event. But as a society, we have this aversion to success. When something looks too easy to us, we wonder why we spent so much time and energy worrying about it. Sadly that is what we are facing here. If we follow the recommendations of scientists and epidemiologists and manage to keep this from becoming the Spanish Flu and killing millions, folks will call it an over reaction and blame science for the cost of the cure. "See it was not as bad as you said. This turned out to be another myth like Y2K".
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The reason that we are reacting more seriously about this virus than previous ones is because of what science is telling us about the potential. Countries are shutting down their economies because they are getting front line information on the predicted impacts that we do not see. There is modelling going on that most folks could not begin to understand based our best science. Do you really think that Trump would have taken the action he did knowing the impact it would have on the economy, if there was not some devastating and credible predictions that he was trying to avoid? Really, in an election year ! This is not basic statistics. If we plan and execute our mitigation right this may end up looking like an over reaction. I hope that happens. This is not a circus act. We shouldn't have to intentionally fall into the net just to prove that what we are doing is hard. Our goal is to complete our routine without falling off the tight rope.
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I was obviously too obtuse in my reference to Y2K. My point was as you said -- we had countless people, working numerous hours coming up with fixes and patches and solutions. Yet, at the end of the day they could not guarantee that it would work, there were still doubts. Heck, I had insurance clients who made a lot of money selling Y2K policies to companies and Y2K malpractice policies to companies providing fixers. No one wanted to say it was the absolute thing to do and there would be no problems. Plenty of experts who had been part of the fixes still said things could go wrong. And the media hyped the negative all the time.
But Hank, when does your science say we can all go back to work and it will be safe using the parametrs that science defines as safe (which I have yet to hear anyone articulate)?
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But Hank, when does your science say we can all go back to work and it will be safe using the parametrs that science defines as safe (which I have yet to hear anyone articulate)?
We are not getting that information in a clear way. Dr. Fauci is the person that I trust the most in this case. He continues to send out warnings. You can model this but the outcome is based on certain assumptions, such as social distancing compliance. I imagine some of the potential outcomes are pretty scary and aren't about to be released. There are no certainties in this type of situation. I am sure folks were asking the same question in London during the bombing of WWII. One thing I learned in my years of climbing is that when you get in trouble, you assess the situation, develop a plan, continuously monitoring and manage the risk, and don't get impatient. Sometimes you have to hunker down on top of the mountain rather than trying to push a dangerous night time decent.
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I was obviously too obtuse in my reference to Y2K. My point was as you said -- we had countless people, working numerous hours coming up with fixes and patches and solutions. Yet, at the end of the day they could not guarantee that it would work, there were still doubts. Heck, I had insurance clients who made a lot of money selling Y2K policies to companies and Y2K malpractice policies to companies providing fixers. No one wanted to say it was the absolute thing to do and there would be no problems. Plenty of experts who had been part of the fixes still said things could go wrong. And the media hyped the negative all the time.
Even with all of our planning, even the folks working on it could not guarantee we found everything. That is why we built war room processes to quickly identify and mitigate anything we missed. It turns out we did a better job than we expected. We did a lot of testing prior to Y2K. We rolled clocks forward and ran mountains of use cases through the systems to try to minimize the probability of failure, but it never goes to zero. You might have an unexpected weak link in the chain, like folks that do not social distance. That's kind of the point. Assess, reassess, and reassess again. The same thing that I am sure they are doing with the virus. These models predict societal impacts. You can bet that the decision makers are looking at the risk of lost life versus the risk to the economy. At least I hope they are. Performing these types of risk assessments are not new. They used to be done by Homeland Security.
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Lots of words, but no answer to the simple question. And no people weren't asking the questions about when it would end in London. They were getting in planes and tanks and manning guns and taking action, not sitting around in fear.
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I think that is what Trump was attempting to provoke by throwing the date of Easter out there to start the country back up. He wants to give some level of visibility to businesses that people have built up over their lifetime and are watching grumble in front of them day by day. I think he is forcing the hand of those around him to tell him why it can't be done, and what we can do to accelerate eliminating the spread so we can get back to something closer to what our daily lives were a month or so ago. He just likes to negotiate in public. Many don't like that tactic and many do. I'm 50/50 on it and not a fan of his approach or tactics in a lot of cases. In this instance, I like the idea because people want answers and he is pressing those around him to provide something that people can point to...sort of a beacon. This is where we want to get to, this is when we want to get to it, these are the things we need to do to get there. We may need to adapt along the way, but we are going to do everything we can to get there as planned. Unfortunately, those around him have not been able to provide those answers to the public yet and some of the media is attacking him for being wreckless. I don't see it that way (yet).
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So for the last week, I have been watching the daily Trump press conferences and then some coverage after the presser. Monday/Tuesday I watched CNN, Wed I watched MSNBC, and Thur/Fri I watched Fox. Granted, I have not watched a news channel or program regularly in probably 30+ years. Wow, what a difference the news is that you get depending on which channel you watch. I will say that politically I feel somewhere in the middle. Well, Mon thru Wed the only thing I heard after the press conference was I can't believe he did/said this, he should do this, why isn't this happening. Very rarely were there any facts about anything related to the pandemic or tactics being done to slow it down or end it. Thur/Fri I heard I can't believe this channel is saying this about him, look at all of these great things he has done, he is the greatest leader and comparable to General Patton, etc. I did get to hear some facts though from people on the front lines and how they are handling patients with some meds that seem to be working. How the government is now mobilizing some resources to certain areas. What some private industry companies are doing to help fight this pandemic. Some positive news if you can cut through the rest of the rhetoric.
My parents are in their mid 70s. The other night I was talking to my Mom. She started on the Trump said this, did that, didn't do this, should have done that. And believe me, she is far from political at all. I started telling her, did you hear about this, did you hear about that. She said no where did you hear that stuff.
This week I have been blown away by the power of the press and the money behind these TV stations. It is crazy how some of these propaganda machines only care about ensuring that Trump is not re-elected and have no interest in reporting actual news and facts. I didn't vote for Trump. I have issues with some of his beliefs, tactics, etc. I find it absurd that 100% of all coverage by certain TV stations are about attempting his ouster rather than reporting relevant news.
If there is ever civil unrest again in this country (and I am sure there will be), I blame the national media for creating whatever the controversy is. I think I would feel better if I only heard our President (whomever it may be at the time) give a nightly news update and have members of his/her staff provide details after the speech. And then say goodnight, America.
If anyone has a good independent new source that they trust, please let me know. I think I am tired of watching the major television news stations in this country. Stay safe out there and take care of each other.
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I hardly watch news at all. I am a headline ready mostly on the web. The media itself is the blame for this. A lot of the reporting are opinions which are like (***holes) everyone has one. They mainly look for ratings and they are alarmist. Living in hurricane country most of my life I have seen this over and over again. I use AP and Reuters plus I briefly check Fox and CNN.
On a side note my wife's niece was tested and she was negative.
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I am not sure there is any trusted news source anymore. I try to read and sometimes watch several different sources and then apply my own filters. For Covid-19, I do as much of my own research, consulting different data bases for information, reading some science news, following up with my own research when they mention drugs or therapies.
I don't trust the media and I don't trust the politicians on either side. Unfortunately, neither career attracts the best and the brightest and that is why I am always surprised folks pay as much attention as they do to either group.
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The aluminum rolling mill I work at is shutting down for at least two weeks. We are an Essential Industry, but we can't make any money if we're making aluminum that no one's buying because they are also shut down. I won't be hurting for money(thanks for Washington's stimulus), and I'll use the time to move into my new house when it gets finished in about a week. Of course, the mattress store that's supposed to deliver my mattress is closed indefinitely, so I guess I'll have to buy an air mattress in the meantime..... ::)
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Lies, xxxx lies, and statistics.
It is very difficult to believe anything said by either the media or the politicians.
The numbers that are used are all tainted.
If you want the numbers to reflect a high percentage of cases you can make that happen. If you want low numbers you can do that too. It is all in the interpretation.
Even the way questions are asked in polls is a contributor to this.
You cannot take bias out of the equation.
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I guess I'm of the opinion that virtually no one actually lies per se, but interpret things so that they support their political bias/intelligence. Both the left and the right claim that the other side is lying, but truth be told, there is an element truth in most of the "lies" that the other side choses to ignore.
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We cannot hunker down long enough to avoid this. It is a virus and it is here. 6 months from now it will still be here. History will be the judge on whether the lives destroyed by the response are more than the lives destroyed by the virus. The suicide rate, drug overdose etc will all go up due to economic crash. Seniors in high school planning to attend college may not be able to now because a college fund has been decimated or being used to live off of. People just retired or planning to retire may now never get to. Already retired may have to try re-enter the work force and fight for jobs while massive unemployment rates exist.
Leaders and not doctors will need to make the decision when to return. Doctors are too narrowly focused and only have concern for the immediate virus, which is noble, but not the only variable in the equation.
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Leaders and not doctors will need to make the decision when to return.
??? ??? ???
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OK I will add my :2cents: (before taxes)
So the goal of having everyone stay home is to help level (slow down) the number of people who catches Covid-19. The reason this is of importance is because our current healthcare system can't handle the large number of people who are getting sick currently. For example if we could slow down the number of people getting sick everyday from 10,000 to 500 our healthcare system stands a better chance of treating them.
Now when we all get back to our normal lives (whatever that is going to be) there will be a better understanding of how to treat this virus. Maybe there will be some meds we can take to slow down the fatality from 1-2% to .1% like the flu.
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Leaders and not doctors will need to make the decision when to return.
??? ??? ???
Wow, your quote purposefully lost all context.
That is reality though. No doctor was elected. Leaders will be the ones to decide. Don’t go too crazy, they are surrounded by experts, but we cannot be locked down until a vaccine is ready. I certainly will not hide for the next year, our society would collapse.
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"are surrounded by experts"
One would surly hope that those experts are doctors and one would additionally hope that the leaders listen to them.
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So it is your understanding at this time that the US is not handling the sick and they are over whelmed? Does not answer my question regarding self quarantine.
Sorry but my post was not a response to your question. It was a response to the entire thread. And yes currently some of the issues the US is facing is lack of kits to test people, lack of ventilators for those sick, lack of medical personal, etc.
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"are surrounded by experts"
One would surly hope that those experts are doctors and one would additionally hope that the leaders listen to them.
Well, having done med mal, I can attest to the fact that many doctors think they know best and have done evrything right when they have screwed up tremendously. I always said that if other professionals -- doctors, lawyers, bankers, etc -- were as good as all the lawyers I worked with (both in my firms, as co-counsel, and as opposing counsel) that would mean half of them were incompetent. Humans, no matter their skill, training, testing and background are fallible and are also capable of getting swelled heads, thinking they know a lot more than they do, and getting a sense of self-importance.
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So it is your understanding at this time that the US is not handling the sick and they are over whelmed? Does not answer my question regarding self quarantine.
Sorry but my post was not a response to your question. It was a response to the entire thread. And yes currently some of the issues the US is facing is lack of kits to test people, lack of ventilators for those sick, lack of medical personal, etc.
I am curious. I have not read of any person who needs a ventilator being denied one. Does anyone have any info on that -- other than folks saying "there will be shortages"? The US currently has 170,000 ventilators.
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that would mean half of them were incompetent.
I don't disagree, however even incompetent lawyer, doctor, Indian chief, etc., probably knows more about their area of expertise than most leaders (left and right) whose specialty is blowing smoke.
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that would mean half of them were incompetent.
I don't disagree, however even incompetent lawyer, doctor, Indian chief, etc., probably knows more about their area of expertise than most leaders (left and right) whose specialty is blowing smoke.
I don't disagree with your assesment of pols, but I have known some really dumb and corrupt lawyers, sooo...... :pig:
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I have known some really dumb and corrupt lawyers, sooo...... :pig:
And we have all known dumb and corrupt politicians. ;D
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Kristin - not a direct answer to your question, but on the malpractice side of your earlier post, there is an interesting article on Reason.Com about potential hospital/doctor liability if a hospital is unable to provide a patient a ventilator even if due to a shortage. Not sure I am allowed to post the link.
Sure, go ahead and post. I would be very interested in reading it. Thanks.
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I stand by the comment that I made on March 14 - Over the cliff.
"We've turned the corner. Normal life will absolutely NOT return".
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I am sorry about your aunt.
The article was interesting, but overlooked a major factor in the use of ventilators -- personnel to operate them. As I understand it, it takes two years to train an RT and even now, the country does not have enough to adequately staff our needs. From my research, an RT should handle no more than 10 patients in a shift although they would probably stretch that in an emergency -- but at some point, you do exhaust people. So, if I was defense counsel, I think the most effective argument is why purchase the extra 1,000 machines when we have no ability to hire those extra 100 RTs. But this is why lawsuits get filed, so what do I know.
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I am sorry about your aunt.
The article was interesting, but overlooked a major factor in the use of ventilators -- personnel to operate them. As I understand it, it takes two years to train an RT and even now, the country does not have enough to adequately staff our needs. From my research, an RT should handle no more than 10 patients in a shift although they would probably stretch that in an emergency -- but at some point, you do exhaust people. So, if I was defense counsel, I think the most effective argument is why purchase the extra 1,000 machines when we have no ability to hire those extra 100 RTs. But this is why lawsuits get filed, so what do I know.
Your argument is spot on. This is why there is a desire to slow/flatten the curve. The lack of ventilators is only a part of the problem. If we could somehow slow down the rate where people are getting sick from the virus, it gives us a better chance to get through this.
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I am sorry about your aunt.
The article was interesting, but overlooked a major factor in the use of ventilators -- personnel to operate them. As I understand it, it takes two years to train an RT and even now, the country does not have enough to adequately staff our needs. From my research, an RT should handle no more than 10 patients in a shift although they would probably stretch that in an emergency -- but at some point, you do exhaust people. So, if I was defense counsel, I think the most effective argument is why purchase the extra 1,000 machines when we have no ability to hire those extra 100 RTs. But this is why lawsuits get filed, so what do I know.
Your argument is spot on. This is why there is a desire to slow/flatten the curve. The lack of ventilators is only a part of the problem. If we could somehow slow down the rate where people are getting sick from the virus, it gives us a better chance to get through this.
Not to intrude, but I find it interesting. I understand flattening the curve. My sister is a nurse practitioner. My neighbors son in law is doctor in NY. My wife has a friend in Italy. I hear surprising and real grounded arguments. My sister says it is real, but statistics are being manipulated for sensational reasons and need perspective. My wife’s friend in Italy hopes that our leaders will be stronger and not allow the economic destruction. She says that they are on the way to rationing and lines seen in 3rd world countries that they will not be able to turn around for years.
Lives survive and will no longer survive on both ends of these decisions. This needs to be faced by all generations. I have parents in their 70’s. I am not young in today’s world of aging being a little under 50, but I do have kids entering this show. It is destroying their future. They are my focus. I will never look at any government as a provider. That is my job. The government’s actions are taking that ability away from me and millions of others. People should be scared to death at how quickly they allowed unelected people to influence leaders to lock them down. I would rather face a nasty flu without hospital care as the alternative. WOW. TMI. Now you know where I stand. I think I will now be out of this thread. I hope everyone that wants to hunker down will do so. I hope the others that wish to keep the country running will be allowed to do so also.
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Not to intrude, but I find it interesting. I understand flattening the curve. My sister is a nurse practitioner. My neighbors son in law is doctor in NY. My wife has a friend in Italy. I hear surprising and real grounded arguments. My sister says it is real, but statistics are being manipulated for sensational reasons and need perspective. My wife’s friend in Italy hopes that our leaders will be stronger and not allow the economic destruction. She says that they are on the way to rationing and lines seen in 3rd world countries that they will not be able to turn around for years.
Without a doubt we have different news cycles that are making it seem worse and some who want to make it seem like it's the common flu. This is with everything in the US. Finding the info you can trust is always tough.
Lives survive and will no longer survive on both ends of these decisions. This needs to be faced by all generations. I have parents in their 70’s. I am not young in today’s world of aging being a little under 50, but I do have kids entering this show. It is destroying their future. They are my focus. I will never look at any government as a provider. That is my job. The government’s actions are taking that ability away from me and millions of others. People should be scared to death at how quickly they allowed unelected people to influence leaders to lock them down. I would rather face a nasty flu without hospital care as the alternative. WOW. TMI. Now you know where I stand. I think I will now be out of this thread. I hope everyone that wants to hunker down will do so. I hope the others that wish to keep the country running will be allowed to do so also.
Seeing the government as a provider is one of those slippery slope topics. I think most people clearly want our government to provide us security against foreign interest, protect our utilities, protect our food supply and things like that. To what extent we want government intervention is always tough.
The good thing is people have the ability to make decisions that affect their lives for the most part. For example as you mentioned you would "rather face a nasty flu without hospital care as the alternative". Clearly this is a choice you can make today. I personally lean the opposite way.
The trick is trying to find that middle ground that works for all (well most).
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sschorr - I am sorry for your loss. Your family will be on my prayer list. The sad thing about this is that in many cases people are dying alone and families don't have a chance to mourn together. It is hard no matter what the circumstances, but this is beyond what we could have ever imagined.
My neighbor is expected to come home today. He had a very rough go of it, but is recovering. This was posted by a doctor at the hospital he was being treated in. I thought it was very insightful. Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy.
Dr Nick Sward a primary care physician at Bronson Hospital: it is not to cause fear just put this in perspective to stay home if you don’t have to work; wash your hands and social distance.
Pandemic Ponderings from Primary Care 3/28/2020
(sorry for length)
Disclaimer: The intent of these posts are NOT to cause panic, but to provide some basic education and help us look at these issues in a different way. Everyone learns differently so hopefully at least one of these posts will resonate with folks.
I've seen quite a few people post: "The recovery rate from this is almost 99%, so stop spreading panic and focus on the positive!" The fact that almost 99% will fully recover is an absolutely TRUE statement. That's great, right?? Slow down a second and just think about that. Sometimes it's hard to work the numbers in your head that our country has 330,000,000 people so if even half of us get infected (lowball estimate), then 1,650,000 of us will die from this. Those kinds of numbers seem hard for people to wrap their heads around so I'm going to focus on where I live, Kalamazoo, Michigan.
Kalamazoo County Population: 263,000
SW Michigan population (7 counties): 874,000
Bronson Methodist Hospital Beds: 434
Borgess Ascension Hospital Beds: 371
Bronson adult ICU beds: approx. 50 (plus 22 O.R beds)
Borgess adult ICU beds: approx. 30
On any given day, both hospitals run at approximately 85-93% capacity (according to American Hospital Directory), so on average, there are 725 patients occupying 805 available beds. This leaves us 80 beds available for anything else that might happen. (If you account for every other hospital in SW Michigan, it adds 77 beds, accounting for utilization)
Current estimates are that between 40-70% of us will become infected with COVID 19 and about 5% of those will need hospitalization (2% requiring ICU care and 1% will need a ventilator). Let's run the numbers!
Population 40% infected 70% infected
263,000 (Kzoo) 105,000 184,000
- 5% hosp 5250 9200
- ICU needs 2100 3680
- Deaths 1050 1840
874,000 (SW Mi) 338,000 593,000
- 5% hosp 16900 26950
- ICU needs 6760 11860
- Deaths 3,380 5,930
So, if you crunch those numbers......
HAVE vs NEED
BEDS: 157 17000-27000
ICU BEDS: 80 6750-12000
Sooooooooooooo even though we already decided that 99% of people will recover from this, you have to remember that 5% will need to be hospitalized. If they CANNOT be hospitalized because WE DON'T HAVE THE ROOM, how many of those people will die? Unknown. But I don't want to find out. That 5% improve because we are able to give them all the care they need. For now. What happens when we cannot? What happens when over half of the nurses, doctors, NP's, PA's, respiratory therapists, Pharmacists and other healthcare people get sick and can't come to work and further drop our ability to care? Even if our hospitals were EMPTY to start, we would fall short of the demand by 50-80% (and we already know both hospitals are 90% full almost all the time). Both hospitals are working 24/7 right now to prepare in any way we can by cancelling elective surgeries and opening up more beds and operating suites which could be used as ICU beds if necessary. But it's only going to make a dent in what is needed and we need YOU to help us.
The picture here is surely one of "Holy****!". But here's where YOU get to make a difference: Research done in China and other countries that have successfully slowed the spread and flattened their curves show consistently that SOCIAL DISTANCING and EFFECTIVE HAND WASHING can lower cases, hospitalizations and deaths dramatically. We CAN make a difference. I know it sucks being home all the time. But if we're going to make a difference, we must do it NOW.
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I got snarled up in all of the numbers but, IMO, the last paragraph says it all. :2cents:
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I think most people understand the argument on "flattening the curve" and understand that without it, the loss of life may be greater. What seems to be missing is an appreciation that there will be, and already has been, a huge cost to that solution. A cost that might last decades. We trade things off as a society and I think there is a whole segment who is trying to pretend there will be no trade-offs.
It will be interesting to see what society is saying in 6 months about "flattening the curve" when economics kicks in.
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I would expect a gradual flattening and then a respectable drop off of new cases. I believe that the drop off in deaths will be the most reliable curve to follow, since our testing may turn out to be sporadic in numbers. In Tulsa we went from 7 cases and 1 death a week ago to 61 cases and 3 deaths today. As for how long we will be asked to follow the limited contact rules--I don't care, cause I'm going to stick to those rules until I see clearing from this community. I think we may have seen the last of the hand shaking and hugging for some time to come. I still love you guys, but that is the way it is for a while.
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Will the "curve" have to be flattened just once?
No, we will need to flatten it twice as with Spanish Flu and now with Covid in China there will be a second wave once life normalizes and the virus spreads again among those who did isolate in time and didn’t catch it the first wave. The Spanish Flu memories of lots of people dying are actually from the second wave of said flu
https://www.thoughtco.com/1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-1779224
“While the first wave of the Spanish flu had been extremely contagious, the second wave of the Spanish flu was both contagious and exceedingly deadly.
In late August 1918, the second wave of the Spanish flu struck three port cities at nearly the same time. These cities (Boston, United States; Brest, France; and Freetown, Sierra Leone) all felt the lethalness of this new mutation immediately.â€
Right now this (second wave) is happening in Hong Kong.
https://abc7.com/amp/coronavirus-covid-19-china-hong-kong/6052596/
“Two or three weeks ago things were finally getting back to normal a little bit," resident Tumshie Smillie said. "Offices were opening back up again, civil servants were going back into the office. People just felt like they could get out a little bit more while still feeling like they needed to feel safe and cautious of the situation.
But in a swift reversal -- in just one week -- all of the progress was erased. The number of COVID-19 cases jumped by 50 percent.â€
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I also read an expert's interview saying that we probably would have some of the summer off and then about Sept/Oct have to go back in quarantine to "flatten the curve" and, depending on when a vaccine is developed might have to do a 3rd "flattening in Feb- March of 2021. Of course, by then no one will have any funds for food or housing, so Mother Nature might solve the problem the old fashioned way.
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All I know is that economies can recover, but dead people can't.
You nailed it!
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I just read a story about kids who have aged out of the foster care system, but managed to go on to college. They have now been thrown out of their dorms and many find themselves homeless overnight at the age of 18, 19, 20 with little prspect of getting a job or housing or maybe being able to adequately feed themselves. But hey, it's just economics right.
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And then there's New Orleans who decided to go ahead with Mardi Gras in spite of the virus threat. How did that work out for them?
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My point is that however we deal with this, there are fallouts and consequences. And somehow pretending that if we just take the path of experts and medical safety everything will be ok is a false narrative. People are going to suffer no matter what path, people are going to feel pain no matter what path, some may die from an overdoe or suicide because of depression because they have no job or money and their kids are hungry.
The idea that there is not a cost to flattening the curve is a myth. I sure would not want to be a 19 year old homeless college kid with no money, now living on the streets -- and I sure hope the folks in the food production and distribution and pharna production and distribution don't decide that they just need to stay home to so that they don't get sick.
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My point is that however we deal with this, there are fallouts and consequences. And somehow pretending that if we just take the path of experts and medical safety everything will be ok is a false narrative. People are going to suffer no matter what path, people are going to feel pain no matter what path, some may die from an overdoe or suicide because of depression because they have no job or money and their kids are hungry.
The idea that there is not a cost to flattening the curve is a myth. I sure would not want to be a 19 year old homeless college kid with no money, now living on the streets -- and I sure hope the folks in the food production and distribution and pharna production and distribution don't decide that they just need to stay home to so that they don't get sick.
Well put, the bottom line is there is no easy way out.
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Don't get me wrong, I have the utmost empathy for all who are adversely affected by the virus weakened economy. My only point is that we need to use care if we are to live to fight another day. A quote from one of todays Seattle Times headlines "A Mount Vernon choir went ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens have coronavirus and 2 are dead".
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Arizona governor issues 'stay-at-home' order; will take effect close of business Tuesday
Time to reup my Netflix subscription
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Arizona governor issues 'stay-at-home' order; will take effect close of business Tuesday
Time to reup my Netflix subscription
Oh, that must be the newest thing that all the govenor's are doing because our just did it here in Virginia. Already hear gunshots all around us every day from folks "practicing".
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Arizona governor issues 'stay-at-home' order; will take effect close of business Tuesday
It has never made sense to me to announce travel restrictions or stay at home orders ahead of time. It causes people to travel more or go out more to beat the lockdown.
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Arizona's rules for the lock down.
Governor Ducey's order defines "essential services" more broadly than similar directives issued in other states, including hair salons, golf courses and pawn shops in addition to staples like grocery stores and pharmacies.
The order permits "walking, hiking, running, biking or golfing" as well, if appropriate "physical distancing practices are used." Ducey said state officials "realize that people are going to need an outlet, and there's a way to do it in a safe way."
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Just like the standards set by the 15 day stuff, I hope before something like this happens again that the federal govt creates standards for the definitions of the names of these orders so that everyone knows what they really mean. I have no clue what is the difference between lockdown, stay in place, stay at home, etc.
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Essential isn't as broad in PA. Some counties have travel restrictions and a lot more stuff shut down. In Pittsburgh they took down the basket ball hoops and closed playgrounds and soccer fields. The county we live in has had 2 confirmed cases that I heard of. They opened a testing facility in the building my GF works, and locked down the whole building everyone even the people that work there have to enter and exit one door. She works in the home health office and they have a door that they can go in and out of just for them but they are made to use the same door as everyone else. she works for UPMC so they have their essential employee papers should our county get hit with the no travel thing.
we have no idea on how far this virus will go in cases and deaths but it seems odd that viruses of the past that were pretty severe did nothing in comparison to our lives as what this one has done. Maybe it is just more contagious or actually worse or maybe it is that there is just so much technology and social media and broadcast media that it just caused the widespread panic that we are experiencing. It is no secret that news stations today are all about grabbing headlines and seem to focus on more negativity than positivity, sadly there are a lot of people out there that just follow along and believe what they hear especially if it leans towards their beliefs whether they are political, religious or otherwise. The next year is going to be interesting to see how it all plays out.
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https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/?fbclid=IwAR2dt-8_OSV-ly9S-mpgbKfZm-CVtvPedPihngL91P5dGMpGfUGdBdd-DOM
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A quote from former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden: "Your personal health is your choice, but the health of others is not. You may feel healthy, but if you get infected you can pass the virus to others who are more vulnerable. You owe it to them not to get infected so you won’t infect them. And you owe it to all of us to do your part in stopping the spread of this virus."
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But according to Dr. Freiden my personal health is really not my choice since I must consider the health of every person in society that I might come into contact with. So my personal health is being dictated to me by others. Why don't the vulnerable owe me the same duty to just stay home?
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FIFTY WAYS TO BEAT THE VIRUS
Stay away from the pack, Jack
Don’t visit your Gran, Stan
Wipe down every toy, Roy
To stay virus free
Don’t hop on the bus, Gus
Don’t listen to Don, Ron
Don’t hoard the TP, Lee
Just stay virus free
Sneeze into your sleeve, Steve
Stop touching your face, Grace
Keep back by six feet, Pete
Heed the CDC
Just use the Purell, Mel
Keep wipes in your purse, Nurse
Take care of your stock, Doc
You need PPE
This isn’t Spring Break, Jake
Stay home if you’re sick, Dick
As COVID leaps, peeps
Just follow the rules, fools
And stay virus free
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https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/?fbclid=IwAR2dt-8_OSV-ly9S-mpgbKfZm-CVtvPedPihngL91P5dGMpGfUGdBdd-DOM
That's a good one Kristin..Clearly, something is out to get us. Keep safe!
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https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/?fbclid=IwAR2dt-8_OSV-ly9S-mpgbKfZm-CVtvPedPihngL91P5dGMpGfUGdBdd-DOM
The numbers are somewhat misleading if the populations aren't considered. The bubonic plague killed almost 200 million of the 450 million people in the known world.
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https://www.visualcapitalist.com/history-of-pandemics-deadliest/?fbclid=IwAR2dt-8_OSV-ly9S-mpgbKfZm-CVtvPedPihngL91P5dGMpGfUGdBdd-DOM
The numbers are somewhat misleading if the populations aren't considered. The bubonic plague killed almost 200 million of the 450 million people in the known world.
Ye old rat flea was the carrier.and the rat was the co-vector. I don't think the people ever figured it out. Not sure what they could have done about it back then anyhow?
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Please remember you local food closet/pantry. I am reading that more and more are running low or are nearly out of food. In our little county of 50,000 there has been an increase of families requesting food assistance by 45%. Please help them if you can.
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Please remember you local food closet/pantry. I am reading that more and more are running low or are nearly out of food. In our little county of 50,000 there has been an increase of families requesting food assistance by 45%. Please help them if you can.
Thank you for posting this, you are absolutely correct. Earlier in the week we arranged for a mobile food pantry to come to pur village through Feeding America. We distributed almost 6,000 lbs of food curbside in 2 hours to around 100 families.
A friend of mine is shutting down his BBQ till this thing passes. He had a lot of inventory to get rid of so he handed out pulled pork lunches curbside to the folks that came.
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What a wonderful thing for him to do. I know it sounds inconsistent, but somewhat hungry adults I can somewhat tolerate. Hungry children just tear me apart.
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my local parks and rec department is opening up the empty mall parking lot to folks living in their cars. They are providing on site sanitation services and security. What they aren't providing is food. So I contacted them and said I could feed the group a meal out of my freezer, I'd just need 24 hours to prepare. But since I don't have a food handlers license and they aren't equipped to staff food distribution they said thank you but no.
I've been around this topic several times now (pre pandemic, but current homeless crisis). It would be so easy for us PF to feed 50, 100 plus people a meal. But without permits and govt support, we're not allowed.
Sorry for the rant, I don't have any solutions.
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JD what a wonderful way to “share some sunshineâ€, VERY nice.
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We have been trying to use the local restaurants take out service. We have noted that many restaurants are following the stay at distance, mask and glove recommendations but some aren't. When I see an unmasked ungloved person coming at me or see into the kitchen area (most of time I cannot do this) and they are not gloved or masked, I wave them off and leave. If possible I tell their rep. why I am leaving.
Now having said that, I agree that we are not likely to get infected by food itself, as the saliva, and gastric acids are antiviral in nature, but we could get surface contamination to our hands, and therefore contaminate ourselves by touching nose, face , eyes where entry can result.
Soooo use common sense as to where you go for takee-outee. Most pizza chains are taking pizza out of the oven at 450* and sliding into the box without touching. And most are using gloved hands to do so. So that is safe. Burger/sandwich joints still require someone to put veggies and condiments on the buns. And of course salads require a bit of hand work.They should be wearing masks and gloves for our sake, not theirs. If you buy foods that have a high level of hand contact during preparation, it is a good idea to transfer to plate, discard the wrappings, wash your hands, and Nuke the food and plate for 60 seconds or more to heat it up and kill virus/bacteria. Not sure about how well microwaves kill virus, but suspect it is pretty effective. There are several articles about this and in summary, not uniform agreement. General consensus is that better to use it for longer period than above and to stir (when possible) to get to the spots missed. You might not like the food if nuke it too long. Make cold things and salads at home if poss.?
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Why are glpved hands any better? A person with gloves touches something with the virus, doesn't it stay on the glove?
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Why are glpved hands any better? A person with gloves touches something with the virus, doesn't it stay on the glove?
I wonder the same thing. we went to the store today and they have bags over the CC machine, a big plexiglass in front of the cashier, some have masks others have a flip up face shield. No gloves and she was spraying and wiping the belt down after every transaction. We had 2 carts one for us one for her grandparents, I said we are together she said she still needs to wipe the belt. So the belt is clean but who knows how many people touched the items we picked up before us. I don't think there is a way to be 100% safe unless you stay in your house and only use the products you have in stock.
The whole thing still puzzles me, as from different things I have read say 97% recovery rate of those infected. It seems there are far more things killing folks each day. Not a big conspiracy person most of the time but there is an agenda being played out here by whom and for what reasons I am not sure.
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Why are glpved hands any better? A person with gloves touches something with the virus, doesn't it stay on the glove?
This is what people are not understanding.
At my store I get several suggestions from customers on a daily basis that my checkers should be wearing gloves.
I tell them that if they are wearing gloves then they would have to change them after each order. They then say then do that. Then I tell them that if you believe that the packages of the person in line in front of you are contaminated with the virus then yours might be too. That means they would need to change gloves after each item they touch.
But they still want to use their nasty reusable bags. Those things are the germiest things in the store.
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I do a lot of reading of data bases and comparing.
In a 4 month period, COVID-19 has killed approximately 59,000 globally. Everyday, 153,000 people die globally of things other than COVID-19.
Every year in just the U.S., cancer kills over 600,000 -- that equals 11,500 per week. In the five week period since the first death by COVID-19 in the U.S. has announced about 7200 people have died of the virus. In that same period, about 57,500 people have died of cancer.
If 1.625 million people in the US died of COVID-19, that would equal .005 of our population.
More than 6.6 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week -- a new record. The past two weeks have seen more people file for unemployed claims than during the first six months of the Great Recession in 2008/2009.
In March alone, 10.4 million Americans lost their jobs and applied for government aid, according to the latest Labor Department data, which includes claims filed through March 28. Many economists say the real number of people out work is likely even higher, since a lot of newly unemployed Americans haven’t been able to fill out a claim yet.
“We’ve never seen anything like this,†said Aaron Sojourner, a labor economist at the University of Minnesota. “The scale of the job losses in the past two weeks is on par with what we saw in two years during the Great Recession."
Many newly unemployed have said they weren’t able to apply for unemployment benefits, because the phone lines were so swamped they could not get through. Gig and self-employed workers like barbers and hairdressers were also not eligible to apply until the end of March after Congress pass the $2.2 trillion relief bill to expand who qualifies for aid. These workers are only just beginning to file out applications.
Economists and policymakers fear even more Americans will lose their jobs in the coming weeks and companies that have been trying to hold on to workers have to let them go or reduce their hours to almost nothing.
I guess this response by politicians lasts for as long as the average American is willing to trade the economic numbers for the medical numbers.
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Clearly everyone has their opinion and I can respect that. I take a different approach.
As of today the reported numbers state that Globally there are 1,216,422 confirmed cases with 65,711 deaths. If we do the math that means a rate of over 5% are dying. In the US the numbers are better, 311,658 confirmed with 8,492 deaths. That would be about 2.7% death rate.
The rate at which people are dying from COVID-19 is alarming. With almost 8 Billion people in the world. A 5% death rate would mean over 1,000,000 could die every day. In the US with 330 Million people @ 2.7% that could mean over 24,000 people dying every day.
No one wants the economy destroyed just like no want wants to see the high death rate from COVID-19. Remember these numbers are in addition to non COVID-19 numbers. If the choice is open up the economy and let COVID-19 run wild or close down a major part of the economy in an attempt to control/slow down COVID-19, I will take the later.
We all have our own opinions which is a good thing.
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Any scientist will admit that the death rate which is currently "known" is inaccurate because they don't know the true number who have it now or have had it -- and they never will. The estimates are that the numbers infected are 10 to 30 times greater than those that we "know" have had it through testing. That would greatly lower mortality as was demonstrated by the Germans.
Interesting sidebar, in Italy, a country with the worst measured mortality rate, around 86% of the dead have been 70 or older with 50% being 80 or older. I read of an alternative approach posed recently, based on these numbers, which suggested mandatory quarantine of those 65 and above with moneys being spent to support them in quarantine (grocery and supplies delivered, home doctor visits for routine check-ups) and to send around medics everyday to check temps, etc. Then "herd immunity" would eventually take over in a matter of months. (The cycle of COVID-19 spread is supposed to be 84 days) There would still be ill and deaths, but the medical systems would not be overwhelmed. An interest scenario.
As I said, the status quo will remain until opinion changes on what direction folks prefer.
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Any scientist will admit that the death rate which is currently "known" is inaccurate because they don't know the true number who have it now or have had it -- and they never will. The estimates are that the numbers infected are 10 to 30 times greater than those that we "know" have had it through testing. That would greatly lower mortality as was demonstrated by the Germans.
Interesting sidebar, in Italy, a country with the worst measured mortality rate, around 86% of the dead have been 70 or older with 50% being 80 or older. I read of an alternative approach posed recently, based on these numbers, which suggested mandatory quarantine of those 65 and above with moneys being spent to support them in quarantine (grocery and supplies delivered, home doctor visits for routine check-ups) and to send around medics everyday to check temps, etc. Then "herd immunity" would eventually take over in a matter of months. (The cycle of COVID-19 spread is supposed to be 84 days) There would still be ill and deaths, but the medical systems would not be overwhelmed. An interest scenario.
As I said, the status quo will remain until opinion changes on what direction folks prefer.
Sidebar above: Interesting idea. However, that is assuming that not dying from the virus is a piece of cake. Unfortunately, I am told that many who survive, who were symptomatic, have various degrees of misery that they suffered and some will have residual damage effects-esp. in the lungs. There are less of these in the younger group but a fairly large effected group is age 50-65. Would be interesting if they could model the current approach to the one suggested above (which of course is the one that would more likely save the economy quicker)?
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Just curious Okie smokie, are the reidual effects greater or suffered with more frequency by those with pre-existing lung issues e.g. I have had pneumonia twice and bronchitis more times than you can shake a stick at. Would I be more susceptible to residual effects? Or perhaps not enough data yet?
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Any scientist will admit that the death rate which is currently "known" is inaccurate because they don't know the true number who have it now or have had it -- and they never will. The estimates are that the numbers infected are 10 to 30 times greater than those that we "know" have had it through testing. That would greatly lower mortality as was demonstrated by the Germans.
Yes we all know there is no way to know the exact numbers. This is the same for the flu, COVID-19, and everything else. Even if the reporting is 30x out of wack this would not change the fact that the COVID-19 virus appears to be more deadly than others. You can only record the known for whatever illness.
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I have a lot of conflicting thoughts on Covid 19.
On the one hand, it does appear to be more contagious than influenza. The scientists are all saying that it is a very "sticky" virus. That it lives on surfaces longer than the flu. It also can be spread for a far longer period of time in an asymptomatic person - as long as 14 days they are now saying.
It is clearly a scary virus.
Throw in the fact that there is no vaccination or known effective treatment and I can understand people's fear.
On the other hand, I am a numbers person.
According to the numbers that triplebq posted about 8500 people have died in America. I realize those numbers change and it could be higher by now, maybe 9500?
We are effectively shutting down the country in response.
If we are doing that now then why did we not react at all during the 2016-2017 flu season when 38,000 Americans died of the flu? Out of 29,000,000 cases that is a .13% fatality rate. The lags behind the reported 5% rate of Covid but I think it has been pointed out that thousands of people have or had Covid without it being reported, thus the actual fatality rate of Covid is far lower than 5%. It is probably higher than the flu but how much?
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Wow, this has to be a seriously unexpected side effect.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/during-pandemic-unanticipated-problem-health-150355070.html
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Yeah, I know a few people that work in labs that are effected by layoff or furlough. My sister has been a nurse for about 30 years. Sometime within the last 6-12 months she moved off the floor and into a desk job booking appointments. I think she has gone back to working on the floor in one of the departments she used to work in because there are no longer elective surgeries at the hospital where she works.
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Just chatted with my sister. She is taking a furlough and is on standby as needed by the hospital. She is not trained on ventilators or in the ICU unit but probably worked at almost every other part of the hospital over the years.
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One thing is for sure - from my unpopular point of view -
We are being fed, constantly, by a news media (all networks) xxxx bent on negativity and sensationalism.
I'm through following these "stories" that are being published 24/7
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Now there is a story that tigers at the NY Zoo have covid-19. I thought this wasn't transmittable to animals from a human.
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One thing is for sure - from my unpopular point of view -
We are being fed, constantly, by a news media (all networks) xxxx bent on negativity and sensationalism.
I'm through following these "stories" that are being published 24/7
I agree the media has an agenda as always.
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Now there is a story that tigers at the NY Zoo have covid-19. I thought this wasn't transmittable to animals from a human.
That may be a harbinger of things to come. One of my pet peeves is people who kiss their dogs and cats or go nose to nose with them or let them lick their faces. Makes no sense to me. I have seen people in their cars at the ice cream store, sharing ice cream cones with their dogs. Perhaps one of the reasons that the CV is so contagious is that perhaps our pets may act as carriers as well. Seems likely now in view of the above. And yes I am a pet owner. Keep your fingers crossed, this may turn into a bigger nightmare than we expected, (if we ignore these possibilities). Hopefully I am just paranoid, but until the facts are known?
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One thing is for sure - from my unpopular point of view -
We are being fed, constantly, by a news media (all networks) xxxx bent on negativity and sensationalism.
I'm through following these "stories" that are being published 24/7
Not unpopular with the vast majority of people I know....but, the squeaky wheel gets the grease. The silent majority needs to be louder. My Grandpa, who lived in the Great Depression, was a vet that had harrowing stories, lived to 94, would be shocked at how weak and scared the populous has become. I have personally flooded every politician who represents my area with my opinion lately. Too many have become scared of the shared human experience where we must manage risk, and navigate it, to maintain a better future for our children. Just wait until everyone figures out how many people a year die from the little round wheel....
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I too have written all my state and federal representatives. I am shocked, I tell you shocked, that not one has responded. :pig:
I am with your grandpa.
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I forwarded the article on the Bronx Zoo to my daughter in NYC last night. She is a veterinary resident at Animal Medical Center in NYC. She sent me the following link with recommendation by the AVMA:
https://www.avma.org/resources-tools/animal-health-and-welfare/covid-19
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New study investigates California's possible herd immunity to COVID-19 (https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study-investigates-californias-possible-herd-immunity-to-covid-19/32073873?fbclid=IwAR3yE14uzGIHYPGOEA9xYtHD1TVsvCbw39slx4RgiIP5kBoVE43_a7bULf4)
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I am not a fan of Fox News so I am surprising myself in sharing this. But at some point, I don't care whether it is CNN,BBC, ABC or Fox -- I look at the content. I am afraid that folks have been willing to drink the cool-aid too long and they are going to kill our country economically just to save face.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-nyt-reporter-challenging-the-coronavirus-narrative?fbclid=IwAR0VO9A7VaIGJUP-qZLwX-czgvApJGh0UVjeRRfQ3VB-VizVK75MK8kOHCU
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I am not a fan of Fox News so I am surprising myself in sharing this. But at some point, I don't care whether it is CNN,BBC, ABC or Fox -- I look at the content. I am afraid that folks have been willing to drink the cool-aid too long and they are going to kill our country economically just to save face.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-nyt-reporter-challenging-the-coronavirus-narrative?fbclid=IwAR0VO9A7VaIGJUP-qZLwX-czgvApJGh0UVjeRRfQ3VB-VizVK75MK8kOHCU
Any time I hear "the model says", I cringe. Garbage in garbage out. Shutting down a 22 trillion dollar economy because of a computer model built off of wildly speculative information is insane. It is past time that leaders lead, and doctors heal. I think they are relishing way to much time in front of the camera.
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Well, I'm out and about this morning and I hear on the radio news that our county (Ottawa County - MI Pop. 286,000) has suffered it's first death from COVID-19. A 70 year old woman who also had a underlining health issue. (Whatever that was)
So the whole dang County,= school, churches, businesses, and whatever have been shut down for about three weeks.
We're must not even be allowed to talk about going back to work. Govt. is sending checks.
The only thing increasing in this area is a high rise in domestic disturbances.
As I said in my "Over the cliff" topic on March 14 "We've turned the corner. Normal life will absolutely NOT return."
You see, our Country will be run in the future by a committee of "Experts".
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OK, now we will really start to see what some people view as essential. Our governor has just said stores cannot sell garden supplies, housewares and the like. My question is whether or not pellets are considered essential. I will be curious to see if the box stores can sell them or not. I am getting low and worried people will start hoarding pellets like TP!
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Interesting. Ground zero and they didn't need it.
https://www.kuow.org/stories/washington-state-to-return-centurylink-field-hospital-to-feds?fbclid=IwAR0EcEjIFYAEOcu0TTcQyOEjZE-4FCC4CNCXVXMqyrTTopFHnUnV2N4P9z4
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In our Dictatorship of PA, the government has now taken control of all medical supplies related to China 19. All places that have PPE, drugs and other equipment have to inventory it and send it to them and they will commandeer it and move it to where they feel the need is the greatest. Which means all the larger cities, so if small towns/counties like where I live do have a need for it they are F'd because it has been moved out to where Pema thought it was needed more. The last I heard I believe there are 8 or 9 cases here, which is really amazing when you think about it as there is a turnpike exchange here with people getting off for food and gas.
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Interesting. Ground zero and they didn't need it.
https://www.kuow.org/stories/washington-state-to-return-centurylink-field-hospital-to-feds?fbclid=IwAR0EcEjIFYAEOcu0TTcQyOEjZE-4FCC4CNCXVXMqyrTTopFHnUnV2N4P9z4
Can not imagine the expense and manpower to set all that up, probably took longer to set up and tear down than it was actually open for use.
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Interesting. Ground zero and they didn't need it.
https://www.kuow.org/stories/washington-state-to-return-centurylink-field-hospital-to-feds?fbclid=IwAR0EcEjIFYAEOcu0TTcQyOEjZE-4FCC4CNCXVXMqyrTTopFHnUnV2N4P9z4
Can not imagine the expense and manpower to set all that up, probably took longer to set up and tear down than it was actually open for use.
In the same vien, I just read this about New York: "On Friday, new hospitalizations ticked up slightly, but not enough to alter the curve — which, as Cuomo noted, “is much, much lower than any of [the models] projected.â€.... If current trends continue — total current hospitalizations should hover right around 18,000 to 20,000 for a while, well under the state’s expanded, 90,000-bed hospital capacity."
Wow, you went through the expense of converting conference centers and churches and all sorts of places when you really were never going to exceed the beds you had. (NY had 23,000 beds before the virus) Why? Because you blindly followed a "projection" that was flawed and was determined to be flawed over two weeks ago and let yourself be govern by panic and fear.
Glad these guys weren't in charge of WWII.
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I think hospital beds are like guns, better to have one and not need it than to need one and not have one. :2cents:
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Great, where were you going to get the doctors and nurses to take care of those 90,000 beds when your sytem can only handle 23,000? And especially since everyone believed we would all be in the same boat -- i.e. there would not be medical personnel from other jurisdictions which could come and cover.
A gun can break down and one person may need to pick up another 1, 2 or 3 more. Living beings in hospital beds need to be tended to.
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From the Washington Post:
Save the Children is partnering with No Kid Hungry to distribute funds to local communities to ensure that the estimated 22 million schoolchildren who rely on school breakfast and lunches for daily nutrition have access to food during this pandemic.
Check Savethechildren.org to see how you can help.
22 million kids who may go hungry because schools are closed is beyond heart-breaking, it is simply devasting and disgraceful. Food banks are also being emptyed. I know things may be hard for some families and they can't help right now, but if you can please remember those who need our help.
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Kids being hungry in this country is beyond sad. With the schools closing it is highlighted.
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Schools in our area are still providing the same amount of lunches by having drive by and pick up options at the school, and also by sending buses around to the bus stops where the kids can be handed a lunch at certain times of the day.
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Two of probably many things that have amazed me during this pandemic.
1) The amount of children who really on school meals for the majority of their daily food intake.
2) The amount of beds in a hospital. I never thought about how many there actually were before this. I was somehow surprised that most large hospitals only have a few hundred beds in them.
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Just when you think you have heard or seen it all regarding Covid-19. Over a month ago I commented to my daughter, a veterinarian in NYC that according to the virus models you may be asked to treat humans. I got an email from her the other day that started out with "Just as you predicted". The NYC office of the Chief Medical Examiner sent out a notice last week requesting veterinary doctors and techs volunteer to work in hospital mortuaries.
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It is bad to hear about the kids and not having meals. What really irritates me though it that there are all these farmers out there that are having to dump their milk and destroy eggs, while kids go hungry and food banks lines stretch more a mile. In my mind there is something F'd up somewhere for that to happen.
A farm a county or two away started bottling their milk and selling it and eggs. The first day they opened up there was a huge line and they sold out of everything in 2.5 hours. meanwhile you go to the store and the milk coolers are almost empty, they limit you to 1 maybe 2 dozen eggs.
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The problem with milk sales is in production lines. Some plants are centered only on making milk in single serving containers for schools or making cheese for bulk sales to restaurants or bulk packing of milk for commercial purposes. These types of operations have been shut down or greatly diminished. Dairy farmers have contract, or their co-ops have contracts, to sell to certain producers. If that producer has had to cut back, then the dairy farmer has to dump his milk because no one to buy. Our neighbor is a dairy farmer. He has no ability to bottle his own milk for direct sale.
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Just got done with my Cardiologist appointment, online. Video call, times have changed for sure.
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So how do they know your blood pressure?
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So how do they know your blood pressure?
No kidding, I have an implantable pacemaker/ defribulator . I have a bedside monitor that monitors it and if it misbehaves it sends them a notice. I monitor my blood pressure regularly and keep it logged. I hope they can take blood remotely and it won’t feel like they are injecting their next meal.
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I just had my yearly physical by phone yesterday, all the doctor did is ask about my blood pressure and replenish some of my drugs. Tomorrow, I fast, go to the back door of his office, sign in, wait in my car and they will draw blood when it's my turn. They will call me with the results and forward a copy to my cardiologist and vascular surgeon. To tell the truth, except for doing it over the phone, that's all they normally do any way. ::)
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I just had my yearly physical by phone yesterday, all the doctor did is ask about my blood pressure and replenish some of my drugs. Tomorrow, I fast, go to the back door of his office, sign in, wait in my car and they will draw blood when it's my turn. They will call me with the results and forward a copy to my cardiologist and vascular surgeon. To tell the truth, except for doing it over the phone, that's all they normally do any way. ::)
It is the same here also. The monitor tells them all they need to know. It was just weird visiting with my Cardiologist via video. Probably be the norm for a while anyway.
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This technology isn't new. It is just being adopted more due to the virus. I had a call with a hospital I worked with 5 years ago setting up video for parents who had kids in the ICU. It was mostly for newborns (NICU). They couldn't get full adoption back then but now it is in demand. I think you will see more of this going forward.
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This technology isn't new. It is just being adopted more due to the virus. I had a call with a hospital I worked with 5 years ago setting up video for parents who had kids in the ICU. It was mostly for newborns (NICU). They couldn't get full adoption back then but now it is in demand. I think you will see more of this going forward.
yeah, Zoom seems like a novelty for some. But we've had this technology for 20 years, it just wasn't adopted widely. I've been working from home full time for 19 years and I'm astounded that people are struggling working from home. VPN's, webex (now Zoom) have been around forever. And one doesn't need to commute or shave or even put on pants!
DK
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This technology isn't new. It is just being adopted more due to the virus. I had a call with a hospital I worked with 5 years ago setting up video for parents who had kids in the ICU. It was mostly for newborns (NICU). They couldn't get full adoption back then but now it is in demand. I think you will see more of this going forward.
yeah, Zoom seems like a novelty for some. But we've had this technology for 20 years, it just wasn't adopted widely. I've been working from home full time for 19 years and I'm astounded that people are struggling working from home. VPN's, webex (now Zoom) have been around forever. And one doesn't need to commute or shave or even put on pants!
DK
So true.
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html
Explains a lot in my mind.
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html
Explains a lot in my mind.
Actually this confuses me even more
"In other words, all of the country monitors flu-like illness generically, over time. We did not see a spike that would have suggested trouble in February,"
So we had community exposure in January (maybe earlier) we didn't get the spike in the curve, so what's the point of shelter in place to flatten the curve?
And then we have this gem
https://news.yahoo.com/cold-calculations-americas-leaders-reopening-122102505.html (https://news.yahoo.com/cold-calculations-americas-leaders-reopening-122102505.html)
And so the nation’s leaders are left with the excruciating dilemma of figuring out how to balance life and livelihood on a scale unseen in generations. “Every governor in the nation is asking that,†Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, where 2,700 have died and more than 1 million have lost jobs, said this week. “There’s no such thing as zero risk in the world in which we’re living. But we know that not taking measures to control the spread means that’s going to translate into lives lost.â€
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html
Explains a lot in my mind.
My friend/coworker went to Disney Land in the middle of January. Got home, and within days were sick with fevers/flu issues. Next thing you know my kids and wife all had it. My wife works at an elementary school and said attendance was low in February. Local hospitals had what seemed to be a large amount of flu like cases coming through, but were not testing positive....I have had my theories. I say focus on the antibody test first, it will tell you quicker what has occured and where our focus should be. The random antibody testing of a couple counties across the US have shown that 50x's to 85x's more people have been infected and recovered than what our counts show depending on the group and area.
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What us geezers do to keep occupied during coronavirus lockdown. Golf cart parade through the neighborhood, 50+ carts.
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"New York may have 13.9% of its population infected with coronavirus, meaning 2.7 million residents could have had the virus, preliminary state results Thursday showed.
New York heath officials conducted an antibody test of a sample of 3,000 people in recent days. The immediate results, released Thursday, suggested a death rate of about 0.5% of those infected because about 15,500 New Yorkers have died of confirmed COVID-19 cases."
And I would hazard a guess that even more than 2.7 million in NY have had and/or currently have it and don't know it. Also interesting that the mortality rate comports with Iceland's mortality rate -- known weeks ago -- because Iceland was the nation with the most extensive testing of its population at that time.
Amazing what we discover when we let the facts develop instead of panicking and assuming we know everything. And destroying our economy in the process.
https://news.yahoo.com/york-releases-antibody-testing-data-175805494.html
And Gov. Cuomo later said: ""What we found so far is that the statewide number is 13.9% tested positive for having the antibodies," Cuomo said. "They were infected three weeks ago, four weeks ago, five weeks ago, six weeks ago, but they had the virus, they developed the antibodies and they are now recovered." Wow, way before the stay at home order.
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https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html
Explains a lot in my mind.
The woman who passed away on Feb 6 was a senior manager for Lam Research. Lam develops and sells semiconductor manufacturing equipment. I knew someone that worked in the same industry years ago. He told me there is always a lot of traffic between the supplier and the customer to keep this very expensive equipment running. Guess where most of the semiconductors in the world are made today. She hadn't done any traveling recently but it is likely that others in her office did.
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I don't know how vaccine approval works in the US, but I sure hope if Oxford's vaccine is effective and ready by September, the US allows its citizens to use it.
https://news.yahoo.com/race-coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-group-191719046.html
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I don't know how vaccine approval works in the US, but I sure hope if Oxford's vaccine is effective and ready by September, the US allows its citizens to use it.
https://news.yahoo.com/race-coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-group-191719046.html
Agree on Oxford!.
Also, it is now apparent that EARLY use of the current available drugs (they are not scarce)--Hydrochoroquine, azithromycin, and zinc has a great effect in reducing morbidity and mortality. This combo prevents the virus from attaching to cells and replicating. It is now known that the virus attaches to the heme portion of hemoglobin and makes it unable to transport O2 or CO2. Acts just like carboxymetho-hemoglobin in carbon monoxide poisoning. Then the red cells clot and hemolyse and release heme. So essentially the affected cells are NOT recoverable for normal function. This attachment also occurs in the alveolar cells of lungs as well as other vital organs, liver, islet cell of pancreas, kidney and causes damage to their functions as well. By the time the patient is desaturated of O2, and fighting for breath, the application of a ventilator under high pressure, usually makes things worse as it can't get the RBC s to pick up O2. The use of hyperbaric O2 chambers would help but like ventilators were scarce before, they are even more so. The reason for the adverse report on use of hydrochloroquine recently in the VAH was that it was appleid too late. Given to patients on ventilators or in great respiratory distress. BOTTOM LINE: These drugs must be started early---IMO the earlier the better.
ALSO: Ultraviolate light kills the virus. There is a new piece of equipment that is like an ultraviolet endotracheal scope that can be used to safely light up the lungs and alveoli where all the blood passes on its many trips for oxygen, and to release CO2, and will kill the virus it reaches in those areas. I am told it is patented but not yet in clinical trials or production. So-our scientists are not sleeping at the wheel. I expect more innovations to follow. The above suggestions about treatment are my personal opinion based on the info I have gleaned from scientific articles, and the info I have gathered from the net. Hopefully I am not too far astray. Stay well, the cavalry is on the way.
PS for those who might think the UV light is a fairy tale (like our brilliant media folks do) here is a reference. Please note the research is being done at Cedars-Sinai medical center.
https://apnews.com/b44f4531071e6204023f7b8e16f59d4b
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I appreciate the info and thoughtful explanation okie smokie. I hope I don't get this, but if I do I am going to reference this thread and your comments and show to my doctors.
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I hope some of this covid research helps to develop new medicines and technologies for the flu, pneumonia, cancer, etc.
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I hope some of this covid research helps to develop new medicines and technologies for the flu, pneumonia, cancer, etc.
I suspect there will be some spin offs for other viral diseases. I know one thing that is a benefit, and that is that people are now a bit more knowledgable about cleanliness, and how to reduce spread of viral and bacterial disease. If everyone with a routine uri (cold) wore a mask and avoided close personal contact for a week, and washed hands, a great many of us would not have to suffer thru the same "uri" with them. For older folks (grandma) would not have to suffer thru everything that the grandkids brought from school. Lots of pneumonia as a secondary complication, occurs in the elderly who had a prior "cold". The pneumonia whether viral or bacterial can kill or damage the elderly.
In 1917 many of the Influenza victims, died of secondary bacterial (pneumococcal) pneumonia. (besides the viral pneumonia). Of course we now have vaccine for pneumococcal pneumonia and for influenza.
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Yeah and I read that this year only about 40% got the flu vaccine. Go figure.
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Yeah and I read that this year only about 40% got the flu vaccine. Go figure.
And for most the vaccine is free. Complacency!. Or ignorant fear of vaccination. Look what happened this year with measles because of the ignorant fear of vaccine.
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Yeah, you are part of the 60% that I can't figure out -- but Mom did mention that you were dropped on your head as a baby, so that might explain many things. :pig:
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Or there is the option that one believes it is not necessary for themselves, like myself! I don't get colds and I don't get the flu. I have not had either in the 21st Century and I am not sure I remember when the last time I had one in the previous Century.
It does not make me complacent, ignorant nor fearful! It is a choice I chose to make!
Go figure!
Au contrare! It is indeed your choice, but remember that part of the reason for everyone to get vaccinated is that it lowers the spread of the disease to the rest of the susceptible community. We had polio obliterated (thanks to Salk and Rotary International). Until people stopped getting the vaccine. We had measles almost totally obliterated until this past couple of years, when people stopped having their children vaccinated. Fortunately, smallpox is totally obliterated, (except some esoteric scientists have it stored in federal labs just in case it is needed again). The vaccine is still given routinely as far as I know. So part of the reason to reconsider is help reduce the spread in the community. Flu vax may not protect some folks completely, but it reduces the severity and the spread of the disease. (don't forget it is also free to most folks. And conveniently available at most Walgreen's during the season). By the way, I don't know why there is smallpox stored in labs, since the vax is made from Cowpox virus. Just hope they don't have it stored in Wuhan. :2cents:
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If I don't get sick in the 1st place, how am I going to get others sick?
Do you think it is the cheeseburgers that fight off the illness? ;)
I often say that for me eating spicy food and drinking beer keeps away those bugs.
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If I don't get sick in the 1st place, how am I going to get others sick?
1. You can get sick! You just haven't yet. Immunity usually lasts one season, and the virus changes almost annually. That is why they change the vaccine every year or two. Also, as with coronavirus, many people confuse Influenza as a "cold". Bet you have had chills, fever, mild cough and some muscle aches at the onset of what you thought was a cold. But it may have been mild flu. Total immunity in non vaxxed people is really rare. (will check it out). As a mild illness it can still be transferred to others, just like the Corona. Hope I am not being aggressive about this, but you asked.
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I WAS WRONG! You can be immune naturally, but since the virus mutates frequently, you might be susceptible to certain possibilities. So my comment that you just have not caught it yet may be true. My apologies for misinformation. One article I scanned said that some folks with partial immunity, do get just as sick when they get the flu, but don't shed as much virus and are not as contagious. Very strange disease. Might be time for me to be quiet and pay attention. :help:
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I will say, he is never sick. No fevers, no chills, no coughs, no sneezes, no coughing -- in short, no nothing. I on the other hand, seem to get everything -- pneumonia brochitis, more colds than I have years, lucky to only have had flu twice. But Bent does seem to not be susceptible -- maybe all the garlic and chillies?
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I love this forum!
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Or there is the option that one believes it is not necessary for themselves, like myself! I don't get colds and I don't get the flu. I have not had either in the 21st Century and I am not sure I remember when the last time I had one in the previous Century.
It does not make me complacent, ignorant nor fearful! It is a choice I chose to make!
Go figure!
I knew a guy like you once. He never got the flu or colds. He was my construction manager on a home I was building. I got the flu in early 1997 while my home was under construction and was out of commission for a week. Many of guys that worked on the job also got sick but not Cliff. I asked him what was his secret. Cliff told me he never touches his face except when washing up and he washes his hands frequently. Sounds a lot like what they are telling us to do now.
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Of course, this is a topic close to my heart and especially on International Guide Dog Day. I feel for the gentleman whose guide is getting old and needs to retire and he was to go to GEB on April 2 to receive a new partner. Now, he waits. Does it place his life and the life of his older guide in jeopardy? I don't know. There is a lot of fall out from these stay at home orders that folks never hear about.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2020/04/11/coroanvirus-service-dogs/?fbclid=IwAR03T66KnAamFT0rye_scCTH3vgF9jE07ZLms8i0eQ8UoyJJQB8Bs5T0FHQ
Bent said he could not read,so I cut and paste:
By Kim Kavin
April 11, 2020 at 9:00 a.m. EDT
Eric Caron, a retired guidance counselor who has been blind since birth, recently moved to a new home. He noticed his guide dog, a yellow Labrador retriever named Ryan, had trouble leading him across a busy intersection he must cross regularly. Caron knew what that meant: It was time to retire Ryan, a near-senior citizen at 9 years old, to pet status and get a new guide dog.
But as the novel coronavirus spread, Caron’s “dog day†appointment on April 2, at the New York-based Guiding Eyes for the Blind, was postponed indefinitely.
“I had packed my bags a good month before the class date, including some special toys for the new dog,†said Caron, of Brattleboro, Vt. “I had a new pair of shoes for walking and a special shirt for graduation. I was ready. And now, you just have to take that bag and roll it in the closet.â€
Like many people with disabilities, Caron relies on a service dog to help him navigate not just the world, but also his home and property. The dogs are trained to do specific tasks such as guiding people in public, opening doors and interrupting anxiety attacks. That training can last up to two years, and it is now on hold nationwide as the coronavirus crisis continues.
The handoff of already-trained service dogs to people like Caron also is paused, because it has to be done in person and with instructors and clients standing close together. That means people whose dogs are ready to retire, as well as people who have been on waiting lists a year or longer to get their first service dogs, remain in limbo.
“We’re under orders, depending on what state you live in, not to do activities that are not deemed as essential. Because this is considered education, it’s not deemed essential,†said Ben Cawley, director of training at Guiding Eyes for the Blind. “A guide dog-user would argue that it is essential, but we can’t be putting our staff or volunteers or applicants in an irresponsible situation.â€
When New York ordered a statewide shutdown, Guiding Eyes for the Blind had 178 dogs in its Yorktown kennels as well as puppies in a second facility. Those dogs went home with staff and volunteers who are keeping them happy but who can’t train them during the pandemic to walk in grocery stores or down crowded sidewalks.
Canine Companions for Independence, based in Santa Rosa, Calif., faced a similar situation. Its six nationwide campuses are now closed, some 420 of its dogs in training are living with staff and volunteers, and the 400 people with physical and hearing disabilities on its waiting list are going to have to wait for the program to resume.
“We would love to be able, during this time, to continue to train the dogs at home and then perhaps look at doing some virtual training,†said Jeanine Konopelski, national director of marketing at Canine Companions, “but still, that in-person connection, the person meeting the dog, that still has to happen, and we can’t do that right now.â€
Michelle Barlak, a spokeswoman for The Seeing Eye in Morristown, N.J., said a class to pair dogs and clients was in progress when the state shut down most businesses. The organization accelerated the training, got the dogs into homes with clients and has been following up by phone, Skype and email, she said.
An immediate challenge, Barlak said, is that the organization’s in-house veterinary clinic also was forced to close. That means local veterinarians end up handling problems, a more costly option eating into existing funding.
Another concern is making sure essential workers who rely on guide dogs can keep doing their jobs, said Thomas Panek, chief executive of Guiding Eyes for the Blind. If for some reason such a worker needed a replacement dog, he said, handoff could be tricky — and their critical work put in jeopardy.
“Right now, there are people who are blind and on the front lines in this crisis,†he said. “I know four people who work in the federal government. They have to go into places like the emergency response centers. They’re using their service dogs to get to work. They’re part of the crisis response team; they just happen to be blind.â€
How quickly future cohorts of service dogs can be ready remains an open question. Training programs are run on schedules, and those schedules are set back every day the pandemic goes on. Dogs living in foster homes may be safe and content, but some are losing skills.
“Many of our dogs need to learn how to work around adaptive equipment like wheelchairs,†said Sarah Birman, national director of training and client services at Canine Companions. “I don’t have a wheelchair in my house to practice with. I don’t have the special light switch to practice with, like the one that’s specially constructed at our center.â€
The longer the crisis persists, Barlak said, the harder it will be for the dogs to get back on track. For now, she said, “I think our dogs are going to be able to catch up quite easily. If we’re all still sitting here a year from now? Then, I would be concerned.â€
Teal Morris, a family caseworker for the Indiana Department of Child Services, is waiting out the worry with her golden retriever-Lab mix, Phil. She got him through Canine Companions in 2011 to help with her lifelong spina bifida. Phil picks up things she drops, and she uses his leash to maintain balance if she stumbles or trips.
But Phil is 11 and due to retire. Morris was supposed to meet his replacement in May. Now, the earliest possibility is August.
“There’s just so many unknown factors,†Morris says. “I’m trying to take it one day at a time. I have a little girl who is 2½, and with her, things are changing every day about regulations and schools being opened and closed.â€
Caron, in Vermont with his guide dog Ryan, also is waiting out the crisis as his wife picks up extra 12-hour shifts. She’s an emergency-room nurse treating coronavirus patients.
“I know that Guiding Eyes is trying really hard to keep everything flowing. When they know what the virus is going to let us do, they’ll get back to me,†Caron added. “I don’t even know which dog would have been mine, but in my heart, I’m picturing this dog just waiting.â€
For now, he’s focusing on Ryan. “I still have to go to Tractor Supply to get dog food. I still have to do things,†Caron said. “Right now, I need him to stay healthy so we can go for walks and stay connected to the world.â€
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Every year I would get a flu shot and every year I would get the flu. They would say “Oh, our vaccine this year does not cover that strain.†The last two years I have not had a shot and I have not gotten the flu.
Go figure!
Al
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The last time I got a flu shot was 23 years ago, and that was the last time I got the flu. I credit the Voodoo doll that hangs over the front door... The garlic and single malts are for insurance. ;)
I'll wait and see what the Dr says once a Covid 19 vaccine is tested and released.
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/why-avoid-cough-syrups-think-031441686.html
I understand they really have not been able to test this theory extensively, but something to think about if you start coughing.
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Had a doctors appointment Friday. Now I live in a rural area, the office I see has maybe 4 doctors and a pa or 2. So they see a lot of people, it is hard to get an appointment and many of the doctors are not taking new patients. I asked mine how things were gong with the sickness. He said they have not had 1 case out of those tested and where he thought they would see positives were with the antibody tests, as they have had people come in and say I had that is Jan. or Feb. but not 1 positive antibody test came back either.
I carried my mask in my pocket, the staff only had theirs up when they were actually dealing with a person.
Went to the hospital for some tests this morning and you have to find the right door to get in the place as most are locked, Masks were mandatory but again the staff only had theirs in use when they were actually dealing with someone, the lady that registered me had hers just below her nose, I saw many staff people with theirs half off or in their hand.
We are to be Green for go here come Friday restaurants are to be 50% capacity, one of the ones we go to often posted. Per our governor masks must be worn anytime you are not seated at your table. I was kind of upset about that as my mask wearing is to protect the people in the building, but who is protecting me when I walk past unmasked people at a table?
Went to vote today, out of maybe 12 people only 1 had a mask, the people working there didn't have any on, and they didn't seem to care if you id or did not.
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/evidence-suggests-covid-19-may-195153450.html
Don't know how they will have a vaccine in 6+ months if they don't even know what this virus is yet.
The only good news I read recently, if it is true, is that it appears the strength of the virus is weakening. Cross your fingers, and maybe it will disappear on its own.
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/evidence-suggests-covid-19-may-195153450.html
Don't know how they will have a vaccine in 6+ months if they don't even know what this virus is yet.
The only good news I read recently, if it is true, is that it appears the strength of the virus is weakening. Cross your fingers, and maybe it will disappear on its own.
I thought I read a while back that it does not do well in warm/hot temps, which is why it seems to thrive in the nasal passages as the air is cooler than the body temp.
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In my neighborhood (which is a RV Resort that has small houses) about 95% of the residents are retired. Out of about 80 people only one couple got the virus. He went to his Father's funeral in Arkansas and got it there. He was already self-quarantining himself from the neighbors when he found out his brother had it. When he got sick he moved out of their house into his motorhome. He has COPD. His wife still got it. They recovered without ever going to the hospital. From what I have read over and over is most cases were mild. From what I understood they took the same type of over the counter medicine a person would take if they had the flu for reducing the fever and cough.
The county I live in South Alabama borders the Gulf of Mexico. We have had only 9 deaths out of 225+ cases.
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In my neighborhood (which is a RV Resort that has small houses) about 95% of the residents are retired. Out of about 80 people only one couple got the virus. He went to his Father's funeral in Arkansas and got it there. He was already self-quarantining himself from the neighbors when he found out his brother had it. When he got sick he moved out of their house into his motorhome. He has COPD. His wife still got it. They recovered without ever going to the hospital. From what I have read over and over is most cases were mild. From what I understood they took the same type of over the counter medicine a person would take if they had the flu for reducing the fever and cough.
The county I live in South Alabama borders the Gulf of Mexico. We have had only 9 deaths out of 225+ cases.
4% death rate.
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In my neighborhood (which is a RV Resort that has small houses) about 95% of the residents are retired. Out of about 80 people only one couple got the virus. He went to his Father's funeral in Arkansas and got it there. He was already self-quarantining himself from the neighbors when he found out his brother had it. When he got sick he moved out of their house into his motorhome. He has COPD. His wife still got it. They recovered without ever going to the hospital. From what I have read over and over is most cases were mild. From what I understood they took the same type of over the counter medicine a person would take if they had the flu for reducing the fever and cough.
The county I live in South Alabama borders the Gulf of Mexico. We have had only 9 deaths out of 225+ cases.
4% death rate.
Of known cases. Case studies from Standford and some East coast colleges with random antibody tests of residents have the denominator being multiplied by 30 to 85 times, depending on the area the test was administered. Most people are never tested because they did not need to go to the doctor.
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In my neighborhood (which is a RV Resort that has small houses) about 95% of the residents are retired. Out of about 80 people only one couple got the virus. He went to his Father's funeral in Arkansas and got it there. He was already self-quarantining himself from the neighbors when he found out his brother had it. When he got sick he moved out of their house into his motorhome. He has COPD. His wife still got it. They recovered without ever going to the hospital. From what I have read over and over is most cases were mild. From what I understood they took the same type of over the counter medicine a person would take if they had the flu for reducing the fever and cough.
The county I live in South Alabama borders the Gulf of Mexico. We have had only 9 deaths out of 225+ cases.
4% death rate.
I checked again and it was 9 deaths out of 291 positive cases. Most of these had bad underlying health conditions. You see 4% - I see 96%.
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At 291 known cases and 9 deaths, that is a 3.1% case fatality rate. The mortality rate is unknown because we don't know the total number of people who have or have had it.
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Yup. I agree with all. Was just making a comment.
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Almost three weeks ago, my 72 year old mother-in-law and about 7-8 friends of hers got together to play a dice game, bunco, like they previously had played once a month before this pandemic. Shortly thereafter, all of them were diagnosed as positive for the covid-19 virus. All but one of them had relatively mild symptoms of a fever and a bit of the coughing and most are back to feeling normal after self medicating and self quarantine. One of them had not been able to break the fever for almost two weeks so my MIL took her friend to the hospital on Monday where they have kept her and placed her on oxygen assistance. She was also showing early signs of pneumonia so they were working to mitigate that too. Hopefully, she will be fine like the rest of my MIL's friends.
The bad news is that they were not wearing masks and practicing social distancing and all fell to the virus. The good news may be that they all now have the antibody and may have a slim chance of catching the virus again if there is any truth to those stories you read and hear about.
She lives about 1000 miles away from us so we have not had to quarantine from her. They were the first people that I personally knew that had caught the virus. So, it is now real to me.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?fbclid=IwAR3Vf0wPBQBvUwNkAYJb0fHZH1Qgr2noPhUmfv_qGlLlaH7SHpf4KBxoN0o
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?fbclid=IwAR3Vf0wPBQBvUwNkAYJb0fHZH1Qgr2noPhUmfv_qGlLlaH7SHpf4KBxoN0o
I read part of that article yesterday. I am holding back my agreement with their statement until I see some other studies finding similar results. They have made a few mistakes on their assessment of this virus in the past from what I can gather.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?fbclid=IwAR3Vf0wPBQBvUwNkAYJb0fHZH1Qgr2noPhUmfv_qGlLlaH7SHpf4KBxoN0o
I read part of that article yesterday. I am holding back my agreement with their statement until I see some other studies finding similar results. They have made a few mistakes on their assessment of this virus in the past from what I can gather.
The problem is, every organization has. That is why it is so difficult to believe any of them.
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I agree with you on that.
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Just as a point of interest on the asymptomatic issue, I did read a different sudy where they exposed 494 people to asymptomatic carriers and not one of the 494 developed COVID-19 or tested positive.
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Now I have read an article or two that states my blood type of AB+ may be the most likely of blood types to obtain the virus with O blood types the least likely.
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My daughter is a Veterinary resident at an animal hospital in NYC. Almost everyone on the hospital floor that works with her got the virus. She never felt sick during the entire time the virus was spreading throughout NYC. Her boss requested that she get the antibody test under the suspicion that she was asymptomatic. She tested negative for the antibody that is present when you currently have the virus and very positive for the antibody that indicates you had the virus at some point. Her fiance then got tested and his results were negative for both antibodies. Just makes you wonder.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html?fbclid=IwAR3Vf0wPBQBvUwNkAYJb0fHZH1Qgr2noPhUmfv_qGlLlaH7SHpf4KBxoN0o
https://www.foxnews.com/health/fauci-says-asymptomatic-coronavirus-transmission-is-possible-following-who-statement-that-was-not-correct
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Yeah, amazing how WHO can say one thing in Feb, then retract it, then say it again in June, be jumped on, so retract it again. So much for scientists and indepedent thought. But we should still follow them because they know what they are talking about -- just like the CDC and its May 4 prediction.
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Now I have read an article or two that states my blood type of AB+ may be the most likely of blood types to obtain the virus with O blood types the least likely.
That's nice to know, that's the blood type I have.... ::) The fact that there's so few AB+ out there relative to O types can have their #s skewed against their favor with just a few extra cases.
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O+ baby! A a kid I wanted that rare stuff! As an adult, I will take the stuff 1 out of every 3 people have in the World. I think it will be a little easier to find when I am bleeding out!
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O+ baby! A a kid I wanted that rare stuff! As an adult, I will take the stuff 1 out of every 3 people have in the World. I think it will be a little easier to find when I am bleeding out!
O neg can be given to anybody (A or B or AB either - or + etc). O neg is called universal Donor blood. So no worry Bentley!
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Like I said, I am glad I have the most common blood type in the world!
Blood group O (or blood group zero in some countries) individuals do not have either A or B antigens on the surface of their RBCs, and their blood serum contains IgM anti-A and anti-B antibodies. Therefore, a group O individual can receive blood only from a group O individual, but can donate blood to individuals of any ABO blood group (i.e., A, B, O or AB). If a patient needs an urgent blood transfusion, and if the time taken to process the recipient's blood would cause a detrimental delay, O negative blood can be issued. Because it is compatible with anyone, O negative blood is often overused and consequently is always in short supply. According to the American Association of Blood Banks and the British Chief Medical Officer's National Blood Transfusion Committee, the use of group O RhD negative red cells should be restricted to persons with O negative blood, women who might be pregnant, and emergency cases in which blood-group testing is genuinely impracticable
O neg can be given to anybody (A or B or AB either - or + etc). O neg is called universal Donor blood. So no worry Bentley!
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AB+ can accept any type of blood so I have that going for me ;)
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This is as good a place as any for my math to be checked. And you can read or not read anything you want into the post, I just like data and want to know if I am correct. If you had 276,061 deaths in a population of 328,239,523 would the Percentage of overall death be 0.0008410?
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I believe the answer should be 0.084%
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This is as good a place as any for my math to be checked. And you can read or not read anything you want into the post, I just like data and want to know if I am correct. If you had 276,061 deaths in a population of 328,239,523 would the Percentage of overall death be 0.0008410?
0.0008410352217091175824064306844608715812690234746654807928172622 to be more exact..lol. Of course, that number is overall population to covid deaths, not people who who contracted covid to covid deaths. I don't think anyone knows what the real number for that is because many deaths have been attributed to covid just because someone had it regardless of what they actually died from. Also, the number of positive tests are inflated somewhat due to people having multiple covid tests to make sure they no longer test positive after they have had it.
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The suicide rate, drug overdose etc will all go up due to economic crash.
If there is mass unemployment and an economic crash, how are people going to buy the drugs to overdose on?
People just retired or planning to retire may now never get to.
Already retired may have to try re-enter the work force and fight for jobs while massive unemployment rates exist.
Got any facts for this?
No way in xxxx I'm going back to work.
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This is as good a place as any for my math to be checked. And you can read or not read anything you want into the post, I just like data and want to know if I am correct. If you had 276,061 deaths in a population of 328,239,523 would the Percentage of overall death be 0.0008410?
276,061 ÷ 328,239,523 = 0.00084. That's 0.084%, or 84 thousandths of a percent.
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Does anyone know the percentage of lives lost in the US population for the Influenza outbreak in 1918-19?
The population was 103.3 Million. 675,000 or 0.65% died.
EDIT: The 1918-1919 rate was almost 8 times the current rate.
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Does anyone know the percentage of lives lost in the US population for the Influenza outbreak in 1918-19?
The population was 103.3 Million. 675,000 or 0.65% died.
EDIT: The 1918-1919 rate was almost 8 times the current rate.
Many died of secondary bacterial pneumonia, many of which would have survived that today because of the pneumovax and antibiotics. Today, a lot fewer die of Influenza and the above is the reason.
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The suicide rate, drug overdose etc will all go up due to economic crash.
If there is mass unemployment and an economic crash, how are people going to buy the drugs to overdose on?
People just retired or planning to retire may now never get to.
Already retired may have to try re-enter the work force and fight for jobs while massive unemployment rates exist.
Got any facts for this?
No way in xxxx I'm going back to work.
Someone must be bored on a 9 month old post. Here is some help.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-deaths-covid-19.html
https://fortune.com/2020/09/28/covid-buisnesses-shut-down-closed/
Good for you on not going back to work. Not everyone is in your position. I personally know people that have lost their business over these shutdowns. That puts off retirement. What about people on the ledge before the market dumped? I certainly would not have retired and still do not trust the market right now.
I did an edit on this for the moderator. On reflection, I regret it. Bentley’s comments below are not what I said. “Rocket science†and “troll†were what must have been offending to Bentley. While not in the spirit of the time of year, my reaction did reflect the disconnect of what I responded to, and what is occurring to people.
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Had nothing to do with research. It was a matter of wanting my math checked.
Now lets see if I can be mean and hateful with the rest of my comments...you must be an idiot if you don't think I can do research, where do you think I got my numbers? ? How is that for a comment? Make you feel warm and fuzy?
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Had nothing to do with research. It was a matter of wanting my math checked.
Now lets see if I can be mean and hateful with the rest of my comments...you must be an idiot if you don't think I can do research, where do you think I got my numbers? ? How is that for a comment? Make you feel warm and fuzy?
I assume you are replying to my response which was not to you. I quoted the poster that was to me and never called anyone an idiot. I will edit it so it is more warm and fuzzy for you, it is your forum. The comments hit me wrong and seemed to be almost not real or connected to reality. I will tone it down a bit.
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I know it was not aimed at me, but it appears you understand what I was trying to accomplish. Thank you.
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Dont let the door hit you in the xxx on the way out!
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Had nothing to do with research. It was a matter of wanting my math checked.
Now lets see if I can be mean and hateful with the rest of my comments...you must be an idiot if you don't think I can do research, where do you think I got my numbers? ? How is that for a comment? Make you feel warm and fuzy?
I assume you are replying to my response which was not to you. I quoted the poster that was to me. I will edit it so it is more warm and fuzzy for you, it is your forum. The comments hit me wrong and seemed to be almost not real or connected to reality. I will tone it down a bit.
I'll most likely get the boot, but don't really care as this forum doesn't have much useful activity for pellet grilling. Bentley has always been a heavy moderator, even worse at Pelletheads. He's the reason I quit posting there, and just mainly lurk here.
It's no wonder it's not that active of a board, talking to someone like that. Calling you an idiot, try calling him that and see what happens.
For me, sometimes it is not so much about content or staying on the primary subject as it is a feeling of talking with people I feel comfortable with, a distant extension of family, of whom I have never met in person and more than likely never will.
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I'll most likely get the boot, but don't really care as this forum doesn't have much useful activity for pellet grilling.
- I don't agree. Please PM me the address if you know of a forum that has more or better activity or information.
- Please don't just lurk and then complain that PF doesn't meet your standards. Try contributing and asking questions. Help bring it up to your expectations.
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If we can maintain civility and sanity for just a few more months, it will be quite an accomplishment.
Merry Christmas to All.
DK
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If we can maintain civility and sanity for just a few more months, it will be quite an accomplishment.
Why do you say that? And I'm not trying to start a fire here. I don't think things are that bad, but I may see things different than others.
There have only been a few episodes here and there where people have gone over the edge taking things personal or extreme left or right when they probably shouldn't have. There is certainly a bit to start a fire here every now and again, but I've seen worse on the internet.
Hopefully, cooler heads prevail and people don't take things so personal. I think the last one had some embers burning with the individual and they started a fire with a remark that may have been misinterpreted in my opinion. Maybe it should have been taken offline in a PM. Stay cool...stay free...stay safe.
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Just to be clear, wyrman asked to be deleted so I did!
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I believe the answer should be 0.084%
That sounds like a small number, and maybe it is. But we need to consider that's the rate with a lot of mitigation in place - masks, stay-at-home, social distancing, etc. How much worse could it be with less/no mitigation? Hard to put a number on it, but I'm sure it would be much worse. The death rate does not necessarily rise in direct proportion to the number of extra cases and would likely be higher.
My BIL was admitted to the hospital a few days ago with purple lips. His O2 saturation was at 70% and everyone in his family has tested positive. Most likely spread during a wedding of his daughter that my family declined to attend. He's in a covid ICU with 1 nurse for every 2 patients, receiving 60% supplemental O2, BIPAP, and on a host of experimental drugs. He's 55 years old and a bit overweight, but no other underlying conditions. He's doing OK but they expect he will be remain there for several more weeks. His case is not unique, and there would be a lot more deaths if folks like him were not able to receive treatment.
For all the folks that are out of work and struggling, that sucks. I hope you are able to withstand this crisis and recover from it.
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I believe the answer should be 0.084%
That sounds like a small number, and maybe it is. But we need to consider that's the rate with a lot of mitigation in place - masks, stay-at-home, social distancing, etc. How much worse could it be with less/no mitigation? Hard to put a number on it, but I'm sure it would be much worse. The death rate does not necessarily rise in direct proportion to the number of extra cases and would likely be higher.
My BIL was admitted to the hospital a few days ago with purple lips. His O2 saturation was at 70% and everyone in his family has tested positive. Most likely spread during a wedding of his daughter that my family declined to attend. He's in a covid ICU with 1 nurse for every 2 patients, receiving 60% supplemental O2, CPAP, and on a host of experimental drugs. He's 55 years old and a bit overweight, but no other underlying conditions. He's doing OK but they expect he will be remain there for several more weeks. His case is not unique, and there would be a lot more deaths if folks like him were not able to receive treatment.
For all the folks that are out of work and struggling, that sucks. I hope you are able to withstand this crisis and recover from it.
Yeah, I am probably not too far from his demographic. I've only been around 5-6 people at a time for a short period of time in the last 30 days. And, quite frankly, those in that group already had covid back in March and still have very high anti bodies according to their recent testing. Other than that, I have only been around a few people at a time in close distance for less than 30 minutes or so outside of being at the grocery store with a mask on. Prior to that, I have been around 10-30 people outdoors for hours.
It is certainly a time that each person has to make a decision on what level of risk they wish to take. I have been lucky.
I'm overweight, pre-diabetes, sleep apnea (with bi-pap machine), high blood pressure, etc. I'm guessing outside of my age that I may qualify for the vaccine in Q121. I am going to get it. Seems like dying from Covid is higher risk than dying from common flu for those that get one or the other. Until then, I am going to stay on my diet of hot sauce, chicken wings, lots of beers, taking all of my prescribed medicines, staying away from large groups indoors, and wearing a mask where appropriate.
I hope your BIL works through this challenge. This is a rough time of year for me. My BIL died of a heart attack at 48 on Dec 28 2018. I will never forget waking up in what I thought was a dream to my wife screaming in the living room after she heard the news.
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We have no idea if your statement is true or not.
We do not know what would have happened if we had not done one thing different than any other flu season. We have people that are experts in there field say we would have 2 million dead by this time even if we ad hear to the most strict regiments. That has not happened. So I guess it is just as easy for me to say, if we had not gone to all these lengths, we might already be over it, I think that is just as valid a point.
What I am tired of is no tolerance by either "side" for differing view points. You are either selfish and a knuckle-dragger. Or you are a scared little person that is afraid to live life.
How much worse could it be with less/no mitigation? Hard to put a number on it, but I'm sure it would be much worse.
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I think the political interests of the media have certainly pushed one story or another. I have tried to find a center in all of that. My position has been wear a mask if they recommend or require it, limit your contact as best as you can to a smaller group of people if you don't wear a mask and preferably do that outdoors, wash your hands, etc.
I am not a scientist or a many years trained or practicing doctor so I believe I should follow the direction of someone that has. The challenge has been that those who I think should have been educated and trained under a similar standard often have differing opinions which perplexes me. This has been a big reason why it has been a challenge for me to trust the media.
So, I am going to make the best decision that I can with the information I have gathered from multiple sources, and that my immediately family and friends are comfortable with. That may mean that some prefer to stay away from me based on their assessment on how they have interpreted the information that they have researched. I am OK with that. That is their choice. I can't make decisions for them. I can agree to standards on how those that want to interact with me want to interact. I am OK with that.
Until our government can or desires to come to a standard agreement on how we should interact with or without masks, etc.; I am left to my own interpretation of what I can interpret from multiple sources of media that are battling against each other for what I believe to be political reasons. I am going to practice safety while attempting to enjoy my life to the highest percentage against what I did before the pandemic.
There you have it. That is how I interpret this time of our lives that I believe none of us have ever had to interpret and decide on our own merits in our lifetime. I certainly have not during mine.
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Well I am a doctor(retired but trying to keep up with advances in medical knowledge) and I have trouble deciding what and who to believe. A few solid things I do know: Note: this is my opinion, not advice to you. I do not practice medicine now but just passing on common sense based on my present knowledge.
1. Almost all the masks that I see are almost totally worthless because the "holes" between the weaving is much larger that the virus particles, so most of them can go through. Granted some of the particles can get caught. Also, the virus can float around the edges just like the air does when you breath in or out. Also, even if it helps a little, many people wear them until they are loaded with larger particles of debris. Some I have seen that are so filthy, as to make them hazardous to the wearer for other reasons. The plastic visors are a joke for obvious reasons.
2. The only masks that are capable of stopping the virus to any degree are the N95 masks. They are made of a mesh material which can filter viral and other particles. They also fit more tightly around the face, nose and chin than the other masks thus reducing the amount of air that gets around the mask. They also can be recleaned and used more than once. They are "95%"effective in catching most bacteria, which are larger than viruses, and many viruses as well, but not perfect in that regard. The critical issue is getting a good seal around the nose. If you get fogging of your glasses when you exhale, then you don't have the nose fitted snugly. When fitted snugly, the center of the mask will go in and out with breathing, and the edges all around will suck up when you inhale.
You can now buy them on eBay and Amazon, so--pay more, use them and reuse them (find out how on the net). And don't let me catch you covering up your mouth but NOT your nose. (Sorry to say but I have seen doctors do that==Duh)
3. Washing for 20 seconds with soap and warm water, lots of suds, works because the virus has a fatty covering that is broken down by the soap. When that happens, the virus dies. It is the 20 seconds that it takes for the fats to break down that is important. Most people just slap on a little soap and water and a quick rinse--which does not do the job. So do it right and often. Especially after handling goods in the store, door knobs in public places, receiving change in a store or restaurant. Yes Alcohol 62% or better will kill the virus on your hands, but don't be chinsy about it. Use a large dollop.
4. You can't catch the virus at home is a myth. Carelessness is the blame. Your mail man (or other delivery person) may be infected, or incubating, and he coughs on your package. Leaves it on your porch or in mail box. You go right out as he is leaving and pick up the package or mail. Then you place it on the table while you pick your nose or rub your eye. The virus can live for several hours on those surfaces. Wash your hands properly again after handling that stuff. Sounds paranoid, but that does not mean virus can't get to you at home.
5. Yes 99.99% of the public will survive the virus--so what? That does not help people like me who are over 70, and have other risks, as in diabetes, high blood pressure, impaired renal function and heart disease plus other disabilities. Many of us will die or wish we had died if we survive and are left with residual lung and renal, liver damage. So you younger folks are not being careful for yourselves only but for those not so young and healthy around you. My young nephew, age 60, had it, stayed home and survived. It was 3 weeks of xxxx for him. Yes he survived but would not want to live thru the pain, cough and misery again.
Most teens and below don't even know they are sick, but can inadvertently kill grandpa by being careless, or being taken for granted by grandma who picks them up at school or baby sits. The kids don't spread it as easily, but that does not mean they don't spread it at all. The treachery here is that they don't know they are sick. Just be a bit more careful around them. They won't die or become schizophrenic just because you don't hug or kiss them right now.
6. A few homeopathic things are known to help your immunity to the virus:
Zinc is known to reduce the severity of this type of virus, by attaching to the sites that the virus requires and thus blocking it from attaching. 25 mg a day is recommended.
Vit. D3 2000 units or more a day increases immunity
Vit. C 1000 units a day May be helpful with healing.
Quercetin 2000 to 3000 units a day increases immunity I think by interfering with viral attachment. But really not known to my knowledge.
7. I won't discuss my feelings about the treatment medications available or controversial drugs that are used. Best left to practicing doctors. And I mean MD or DO-- not nurses, PA's, nurse practitioners, chiropractors, naturopaths. Stick with you MD or DO on this subject.
8. Vaccine--if you are over 60 get it! Either of those avail at present are good and more to come.
9. Freedom of religion--Yes! Going to church right now-not for me. I think God can hear my prayers from home just as well as from a crowded church pew. Your choice of course.
Lotsa other stuff but not for me to discuss. All the above is my opinion, based on 50 years of experience, and not personal advice to you. Ask your doctor when in doubt.
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Thank you okie, a lot of information in your post. Much of it is in line with what I have read about and had seen the Zinc, VitD and C mentioned many times. I usually do all 3 especially in the winter.
I hate the whole mask thing, one it is not comfortable but more than that is seeing how people wear them. Why bother. We have a grocery chain they toss people put if you don't have one on, apparently a medical reason is not good enough to go maskless in their store, yet most of the people working there have them under their nose or big gaps along the side of them. I asked one guy there one time, he was dressed pretty nice looked like management of some sort and he as well had his under his nose as he was doing an end cap., about why we need to wear a mask if no one wears it the correct way. His response was the governor says we have to have a face covering. I said okay but your nose is sticking out an I under stand it lives in the nasal cavity, so your mask is basically useless. I thanked him and walked away.
I have found for myself I am more willing to wear them in a small local business, 1 because most seem to have them on correctly, and two. Knowing how people are about it, some are over the top, and if they see people in a place with out one they shout it from the roof tops that joes Hardware allow people to walk around with out any mask and that has the potential to harm Joes business. ( I would rather go buy from Joe than Lowes, so I don't want to see him close up.)
I think we all have our own health issues and we need to do what is best for us, do what you feel comfortable with and use some common sense and logic.
It seems like most things there are 2 sides to it, one side is outspoken but the other is way over the top. The people that follow and believe everything they see and hear from the government and news will turn your xxx in if they see something not they way they are lead to believe it should be. Our governor shut down restaurants and bars for dine in for 3 weeks. There were several little places that said we are going to stay open, and people were on the phone reporting them as soon as they saw it. It didn't matter if they ate there or not.
I am only 55 but the longer I live the more I dislike people.
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Just an FYI on CV progress:
1. Ivermectin (yes the drug used to treat intestinal worms in people and animals) has been found to be VERY effective in use as prophylaxis, treatment for people with known exposure, people with mild early CV, and maybe even moderate CV. It is a very safe drug, been around for 40 years and received a Nobel prize. A famous group of specialists has been reviewing all known drugs (not new) and found reports of double blind studies that prove this is true. Dr. Marek MD presented this info to the Senate Subcommittee last week. Look for it in the news. In several studies patients received either Ivermectin or Hydroxycloroquin. Ivermectin was multiple times more effective. In particular the stats show that if you take Ivermectin prophylactically you will not get CV, and if you get CV and then take Ivermectin, you will not die of CV(I'm sure there will be exceptions).
2. Monoclonal antibodies (several new brands) have been made available for "emergency" use (not a full approval by FDA) and are effective for those with early disease. My sister-in-law was just treated for early Covid with mild pneumonia with Bamlanivimab by IV on Thursday night and had overnight improvement, and now feeling good today. She thinks its a miracle. Three days ago she had total body pain and fever with cough. (same kind of rx that Trump took the night he went to the hospital --and felt good the next day). P.S. SIL is 80 y/o.
3.Lesson? If you get CV, there is good treatment, if you do not delay. But always check with your MD or DO.
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Thanks for the info Okie.